\u3000\u3000 Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) (002049)
Event: the company disclosed the performance forecast for 21 years. The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years to be 1.9 billion yuan – 2.1 billion yuan, and the net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses to be 1.7 billion yuan – 1.9 billion yuan.
The company’s performance grew rapidly, and Q4 grew rapidly quarter on quarter
Benefiting from the rapid development of various business segments of the company, the company disclosed the performance forecast for 21 years. The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years to be RMB 1.9 billion-2.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 136% – 160%. The net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses was RMB 1.7 billion-1.9 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 144% – 173%. The deduction of non items mainly comes from government subsidies and investment income. At the same time, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 in a single quarter is 450 million yuan – 650 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 275% – 441%, and the profit in Q4 in a single quarter hit a record in the same period.
Special business is expected to continue to grow rapidly and build a platform company around SOPC core products
The special integrated circuit business has achieved rapid growth and contributed to sustained and stable profits. At present, the company’s special business orders are full and production scheduling is smooth. At present, the company has made a comprehensive layout around SOPC and formed a series of product layouts with obvious competitive advantages. The company has been deeply engaged in the field of computing for decades. At present, it has formed a fist product of CPU + FPGA. At the same time, the company continues to improve its SOC capability, integrate more IP into its own computing platform, such as power management, interface, bridge, bus, storage and FPGA, and gradually form its own ecology. With the improvement of the company’s SOPC products and ecology, the company’s products have gradually changed from a single hardware product to providing the underlying core system, and gradually completed the transformation from “IP” to “system”. In addition, the company has a comprehensive layout of v1-v7 series, and the competitiveness of products continues to maintain a leading position. At the same time, the company has also increased R & D investment in the fields of digital power supply, high-performance clock, high-speed and high-precision ADC / DAC, made breakthroughs in some key technologies, and is expected to become a new growth point of the company during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
SIM card market share increased, and e-sim, VCU and NFC services opened the second growth curve
The profitability of intelligent security business has been comprehensively improved, and emerging businesses are ready to go. According to the company’s semi annual report, the gross profit margin of this kind of business is 29.7%, which has recovered significantly. We expect that the company’s annual gross profit margin will reach more than 30%. In terms of traditional business, bank cards, ID cards and other products, we expect that such businesses will face a large-scale card replacement cycle from 23 to 25 years. At the same time, emerging payment means such as digital currency will also bring new demand. We expect the overall demand of the industry to achieve a year-on-year growth. At the same time, due to the lack of global semiconductor production capacity, major SIM card chip manufacturers such as Samsung and Infineon began to withdraw from this field after opening 199250. Benefiting from this, the company’s SIM card overseas business shipments continued to grow, realizing the trend of both volume and price. In terms of new business, the research and development of the company’s automobile VCU business is progressing smoothly. On July 14, 2021, the company’s convertible corporate bonds were listed and traded in Shenzhen Stock Exchange, raising a total of 1.5 billion yuan to deepen the layout of high-end safety chips and vehicle regulations, of which 450 million yuan is used for vehicle VCU research and development and industrialization projects, and the products are mainly used for vehicle control decisions, including power and chassis. At present, the company’s R & D is progressing smoothly and the team scale continues to expand. It has established R & D teams in Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai, with a team scale of nearly 80 people. As the current e-sim leading enterprise in China, the company is expected to benefit from the improvement of e-sim card penetration in mobile phones in the future. According to a number of overseas media, Apple may launch e-sim phones in some regional markets this year. We expect that Chinese Android manufacturers will follow up Apple’s move and launch e-sim phones in overseas markets. Because the area of ESIM chip is much larger than that of traditional SIM chip, its unit price and gross profit margin are much better than that of SIM card chip business.
Investment advice
Based on the continued prosperity of the special integrated circuit industry and security chip industry and the company’s performance forecast, we raised the company’s annual profit forecast for 21 years and maintained it for 22 and 23 years. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.908 billion yuan, 9.433 billion yuan and 15.181 billion yuan respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company increased from 1.743 billion yuan in 21 years to 1.910 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 years and 23 years were 3.171 billion yuan and 5.464 billion yuan respectively; EPS increased from 2.87 yuan / share in 21 years to 3.15 yuan / share, EPS in 22 years and 23 years were 5.23 yuan / share and 9.00 yuan / share respectively, corresponding to the closing price of 221.06 yuan on January 18, 2021, and PE were 64x, 39x and 22x respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The budget expenditure of special industries is lower than the expected risk. At present, most of the company’s net profit comes from special integrated circuit business, which is related to its industry budget expenditure. In the future, if the industry budget expenditure is less than expected, the company’s performance will face the risk of being greatly affected; Gross margin fluctuation risk. The competition of special integrated circuits is fierce, and the industry may introduce suppliers in the future. In the future, if the industry competition of special integrated circuit business intensifies or the company is unable to complete the product upgrading through continuous research and development, resulting in the fluctuation of the company’s product gross profit margin, it will have a great impact on the company’s performance; Chip capacity supply is limited. The capricious epidemic situation leads to the limited production capacity of the chip foundry, and the company may not be able to obtain sufficient production capacity, resulting in the failure to smoothly provide chips to customers, affecting the company’s income; The downstream demand of intelligent security chip is lower than expected; FPGA civilian market expansion was less than expected.
