\u3000\u3000 Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (300073)
The company released the performance forecast for 2021, and the annual performance is expected to increase by 160% – 173%. The company benefits from the rapid growth of sales of new energy vehicles, and positive material products are expected to be in large quantities to maintain the overweight rating.
Key points supporting rating
It is predicted that the profit in 2021 will increase by 160% – 173% year-on-year: the company issued the performance forecast for 2021, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 1-1.05 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 159.81% – 172.80%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 740-790 million, with a year-on-year increase of 203.83% – 224.36%. According to the performance forecast, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 273-323 million in 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of 127.5% – 169.2% and a month on month change of – 2.5% – 15.4%; Deduct non-profit of RMB 226-276 million, with a year-on-year increase of 1229.4% – 1523.5% and a month on month increase of 1.3% – 23.8%. The company’s forecast performance is in line with expectations.
The material sales volume increased significantly and the profitability improved steadily: in 2021, the demand for the company’s products from Chinese and foreign customers increased rapidly, and the new production capacity was put into operation at full capacity after completion. It is estimated that the company’s cathode material production capacity will reach 50000 tons in 2021, and the sales volume will be about 50000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 108.3%, of which the sales volume in 2021q4 is expected to reach 15000-18000 tons. Ni83, ni90 and other products of the company have been sold in batches to overseas customers, and the proportion of high nickel has gradually increased. The company’s production capacity is expected to reach 100000 tons in 2022, and the annual sales volume is expected to further increase. We estimate that the company’s net profit per ton is about 15000 yuan, which shows the company’s good cost control ability when the price of upstream raw materials rises sharply in 2021.
Cooperate with Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) to ensure the supply of raw materials: the company actively ensures the supply of upstream raw materials, and plans to purchase 300000-350000 tons of ternary precursors from Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) from 2022 to 2025; Jointly carry out the comprehensive development and utilization of laterite nickel ore in Indonesia with Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) and invest in supporting projects related to lithium iron phosphate in Guizhou. The supply and demand of products such as high nickel NCM precursors will reach 200000-300000 tons in the next three years.
Valuation
Under the current share capital, combined with the company’s performance forecast and industry conditions, we adjusted the company’s predicted earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 to 2.03/2.87/3.81 yuan (the original predicted diluted earnings per share was 1.54/2.02/2.65 yuan), corresponding to the P / E ratio of 43.2/30.5/23.0 times; Maintain the overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
The new energy vehicle industry policy did not meet expectations; The product strength of new energy vehicles does not meet expectations; The demand of the industrial chain does not meet the expectation; The price competition in the industrial chain exceeds expectations; The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations
