The purchase of growth hormone has finally landed!
On January 19, Guangdong Pharmaceutical Trading Center issued the document of Guangdong Alliance for centralized procurement of diclofenac and other drugs (hereinafter referred to as the document), which launched the Alliance for centralized procurement of 276 drugs, including growth hormone and blood products.
This is also the first time that growth hormone has participated in the collective collection. Affected by this, the shares of domestic growth hormone leaders Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) (000661. SZ) and Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) (300009. SZ) fell sharply, closing down 10% and 7.54% respectively on the 19th.
an unexpected centralized purchase
According to the document, the 276 drugs (including chemical drugs and biological products) included in the centralized purchase of Guangdong alliance are varieties with large consumption and high purchase amount in the national catalogue of basic medical insurance drugs.
The alliance regions participating in this centralized mining include 11 provinces (autonomous regions) including Guangdong, Shanxi, Jiangxi, Henan, Guangxi, Hainan, Guizhou, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Xinjiang production and Construction Corps.
The procurement subject is all public medical institutions (including military medical institutions) in the alliance area. Designated social medical institutions and designated pharmacies of medical insurance can participate voluntarily.
among the 276 intensively collected varieties, growth hormone is the most concerned by the market. Statistics show that the scale of China’s growth hormone market has been close to 6 billion yuan.
It is worth mentioning that although growth hormone has always been expected to be collected, from the content of the document on the 19th, this time, the 11 Guangdong Provincial alliance has made greater efforts to collect growth hormone than previously expected.
mainly reflected in: 1. Centralized mining includes not only powder injection, but also water injection (previously, it was thought that powder injection was more likely to be centralized mining); 2. There is no differentiation of dosage forms, and the powder injection and water injection compete in the same group, which forms a great pressure on the price reduction of water injection; 3. In terms of price limit, the maximum price of powder injection is acceptable (basically close to the lowest winning price in all provinces), but the price limit of water injection is low; 4. Social medical institutions participated in the reporting.
“The low price limit of water injection is mainly due to the lack of differentiation of dosage forms. Powder injection is used as a representative product and priced directly with reference to powder injection. In this way, the price reduction pressure of water injection with higher price is even greater. According to the documents, the price of growth hormone water injection may be reduced by 60% – 70% on the existing basis.” Some analysts told the reporter of science and technology innovation board daily.
Taking the growth hormone water needle (specification: 4.5iu / 1.5mg / 0.9ml) of Changchun jinshai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “jinshai pharmaceutical”), a subsidiary of Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , as an example, the price limit of this centralized purchase is 69.0569 yuan / piece, which is nearly 70% lower than the current net price of about 230 yuan / piece.
Taking Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) growth hormone water needle (specification: 4iu / 1.33mg / 1ml) as an example, the price limit of this centralized purchase is 63.1027 yuan / piece, which is also nearly 70% lower than the existing net price of 209 yuan / piece of this product.
In addition, according to the public data of Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) and Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) , the sales of growth hormone of the two enterprises mainly occur in private hospitals, and the sales in public hospitals are less than 30%. Therefore, it was previously believed that even if there is centralized procurement (the procurement subject is generally public hospitals), the sales of the two companies are mainly “outside the hospital” (private hospitals), so the impact of centralized procurement is limited.
However, according to the document on the 19th, although voluntary participation is allowed as required, the social medical institutions designated by the medical insurance also participated in the reporting volume of centralized collection, which shows that the price reduction of centralized collection of growth hormone shows signs of infiltration from “in hospital” to “out of hospital”.
performance impact or temporarily limited
Growth hormone can be divided into three dosage forms: powder injection, water injection and long-acting water injection. From the perspective of dosage form competition pattern, water needle is the mainstream dosage form in China, with a market share of about 60%; The powder injection dosage form accounts for about 38%, and the long-acting dosage form is only 1% (the long-acting dosage form is the exclusive dosage form of Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) ).
From the perspective of enterprise competition pattern, according to Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , there are only three players of growth hormone water needle in China. In 2020, the market share of sample hospital water needle growth hormone Kinsey pharmaceutical industry was the first (the amount accounted for nearly 100% and the quantity accounted for nearly 100%). The competition in powder injection is more intense. There are 6 or 7 manufacturers, of which Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) is the leader of powder injection. In 2020, the market share of powder injection growth hormone Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) in sample hospitals will be the first (the amount accounts for 44% and the quantity accounts for 41%), and Kinsey pharmaceutical will be the third (the amount accounts for 15% and the quantity accounts for 22%).
In terms of Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , according to public information, at present, the sales of Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) water injection accounts for about 70% – 80%, powder injection accounts for 8% – 9%, and long-term effect accounts for about 12-13%.
According to the document, three water injection enterprises including Novo Nordisk, Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) and Kinsey pharmaceutical obtained the hospital’s reported volume in the centralized purchase of Guangdong alliance; There are 5 powder injection enterprises that have obtained the reported quantity of the hospital, including: Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) , Shanghai United Saier Bioengineering Co., Ltd., kinsay pharmaceutical, Zhongshan Weiming Haiji biomedical Co., Ltd. and LG life sciences of Korea.
According to the statistics of the reporter of the science and Innovation Board daily, in terms of water injection, Kinsey pharmaceutical obtained the most reports, and the pre procurement volume in the first year of the procurement period was close to 130000 pieces; In terms of powder injection, Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) and Kinsey pharmaceutical obtained about 480000 and 310000 pre purchases in the first year respectively.
Medical insurance designated social medical institutions reported less.
According to the feedback of insiders, whether it is water injection or powder injection, the reported volume of growth hormone in Guangdong alliance centralized collection hospital accounts for a limited proportion of the existing sales volume in the market.
In addition, according to the rough statistics of the reporter of the science and Innovation Board daily, based on the existing online price, the centralized purchase of Guangdong alliance will affect the sales of growth hormone (including water injection and powder injection) of Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) about 100 million yuan, and Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) is about 50 million yuan.
therefore, on the whole, the impact of the alliance’s centralized procurement on the performance of listed companies is expected to be limited for the time being. however, some people believe that since the Guangdong alliance, the price reduction of centralized hormone production will be linked to the whole country or sooner or later, so the logic and expectation of investment have changed.
In addition, some securities companies interpret that because water injection and powder injection compete in the same group, and the two types of products face different price reduction pressure, enterprises may choose different bidding strategies according to their own conditions, such as abandoning water injection bidding and winning the bid through powder injection price reduction to maintain market sales, The different bidding strategies will have different effects on the existing product price system and competition pattern.
