Main points
Exports are strong and imports fall
In December, exports continued to pick up year-on-year, with an average decline in the two years, but the overall performance still exceeded expectations.
Overseas demand is still high. In December, the prosperity index of European and American manufacturing industry was high, especially the demand for European and American festivals increased. The import boom index of the United States rebounded in December, and the import of holiday products from China increased, driving the continuous growth of China's exports.
Imports fell. From the two-year average growth rate, the growth rate of imports of major commodities declined, but coal imports continued to increase, and crude oil and copper imports also rebounded slightly. In December, the prices of major commodities fell. Under the joint action of volume and price, the import volume of major commodities fell except crude oil, coal, automobiles and copper.
Optimize the trade structure and promote the development of high-tech industries
In December, general trade continued to dominate the growth of foreign trade. The epidemic restricts contact trade, and the growth of cross-border e-commerce drives the export growth of related products in the computer and information technology industry.
The surplus reached a new high and the capital inflow into China remained unchanged
China's foreign trade situation is improving, and its surplus has reached a new high. At present, it is expected to continue to consolidate the gap by the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase. The trend of capital inflow into China remains unchanged, and the environment for China's benchmark currency is relatively stable. After the introduction of interest rate cut, further support enterprises to reduce costs.
Foreign trade highlights may fade
Although the current export strength continues, we believe that the high light moment of foreign trade in 2022 will pass.
Thanks to the global "top student" status of anti epidemic, China's foreign trade has enjoyed the dividend of successful anti epidemic for two consecutive years; In 2022, countries will gradually "unseal", which means that overseas production will gradually recover, and the high dependence on Chinese production caused by the epidemic will gradually weaken to normal. On the other hand, the rescue policy that continues the high overseas demand will also gradually withdraw, and the demand for foreign trade will also gradually decline. Although China's foreign trade growth is facing a decline and the scale of import and export will decline, the surplus may remain high due to changes in terms of trade.
Risk tips
The supply problem is longer than expected, and overseas demand is limited.
