Today (January 19), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment pattern as a whole. The Shanghai index mainly fluctuated after the opening, while the gem index and Shenzhen Composite Index stepped out of the pulse downward trend. In the afternoon, the three major stock indexes accelerated adjustment and dived in consistency. They rebounded in the late afternoon and the decline converged.
In this regard, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that the market is in the consolidation and bottoming stage, the repair of emotions takes time, and the adjustment of some sectors has not ended yet. Therefore, it is inevitable that the index will differentiate in different positions. Popularity at the bottom stage will recover, but to return to the excited state, we need to wait for the landing of peripheral boots and the re cohesion of market consensus.
At the same time, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) pointed out that for the “new half army” and other hard technology sectors: combined with the five crowding index and previous callbacks, the current adjustment space has been relatively adequate. Focus on three directions: 1) real estate chain and infrastructure chain; 2) Securities firms; 3) With a long fight against the short, bargain hunting layout, and scientific and technological growth represented by “small high-tech”.
sector:
I. infrastructure
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that recently, the central government mentioned the new special debt, focusing on water conservancy, transportation, municipal infrastructure construction, affordable housing projects and other fields. The Ministry of water resources mentioned the implementation of major projects of the national water network. We expect that the construction of underground pipe network and sponge city will bring sustainable increment during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The completion end of the real estate remained resilient, but the new construction and sales remained weak.
In terms of real estate, the easing signal has been gradually released, and the bottom of the policy has been found. We expect that the financing end of subsequent real estate enterprises and consumers is expected to be slightly relaxed. In addition, accelerating the construction of affordable rental housing during the 14th Five Year Plan period will bring some increment. Previously, the valuation of the decoration building materials sector has been in the lower position of the historical center due to the slowdown in demand, the rise of raw materials and cash flow pressure. Under the relaxed expectation of the margin of real estate, the decline of the high cost of raw materials, the gradual release of bad debt provision and cash flow risk expectation, the overall sector is expected to usher in performance and valuation repair.
Guosheng securities mentioned that in the historical market of the resumption of trading, the excess return of the construction sector is more obvious in the initial stage of policy adjustment and improvement of the monetary and credit environment (such as Q4 in 2008, Q4 in 2014, the second half of 2018, etc.). At present, with the increasing downward pressure on the economy, the strengthening of the policy of stable growth in infrastructure and the improvement of the industry’s financial environment, the leader of high-quality construction is expected to meet the driving force of valuation improvement. Blue chips for undervalued buildings are mainly recommended: China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) and China Design Group Co.Ltd(603018) , Anhui Transport Consulting & Design Institute Co.Ltd(603357) , Jsti Group(300284) .
In addition, the direction of stable growth and high prosperity elasticity is recommended: 1) affordable housing: focus on China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , Shanghai Construction Group Co.Ltd(600170) , Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) ; 2) Steel structure: key recommendations Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) ; 3) New power system: focus on recommending and paying attention to Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) leaders of central enterprises in power infrastructure, Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) leaders of private distribution network EPCO, and Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) experts in enterprise energy efficiency control.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that the annual infrastructure growth rate in 2022 may show a trend of high before and low after. It is expected that the growth rate of new construction will remain low in the medium and long term. It is judged that the slowdown of completion growth rate is a phased disturbance, and the growth rate of completion end will continue to pick up in the first half of 2022. Three promising directions are recommended: 1) the direction of construction central enterprises; 2) New energy field of electric power; 3) Field of assembly and equipment leasing.
II. digital economy
Capital Securities pointed out that the “14th five year plan” for digital economy development was released. Focus on making up the shortcomings of key technologies, and strengthen the layout of advantageous technologies and cutting-edge technologies for rescue. Vigorously promote industrial digital transformation and digital industrialization. In terms of digital industrialization, it focuses on complementing the shortcomings of key technologies, focusing on breaking through the key core technologies in the fields of high-end chips, operating systems, industrial software, core algorithms and frameworks, and strengthening the integrated research and development of general-purpose processors, cloud computing systems and software key technologies. At the same time, strengthen the layout in 5g, big things cloud movement, blockchain and other fields, and break through integrated technologies such as intelligent manufacturing, digital twins and urban brain. It also focuses on emerging technologies such as quantum communication and next-generation communication technology.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) said that the “14th five year” digital economy development plan points out the direction of efforts from the transformation of economic structure and is expected to become a forward-looking guide from the medium-term perspective of science and technology growth and investment. In the medium term, China’s digital economy has entered a new stage of high-end, service-oriented and making up for weaknesses. In the process of business transformation, relevant “old” companies will see their performance gradually realized. In the short term, the emerging areas that the planning focuses on will support the breakthrough of “new companies” from 0 to 1, and there will also be phased theme investment opportunities, especially the “specialized and special new” related companies, which may enjoy a certain premium of valuation.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) mentioned that the digital economy is the strategic focus at the national level. With the introduction of the top-level plan, the follow-up laws and policies will be gradually implemented. “Digitization” will become the core development main line of the whole industry during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The computer industry has ushered in an all-round good, and the relevant domestic software manufacturers are expected to take the lead in benefiting.
1) digital technology base: major breakthroughs are expected in key technology fields such as industrial Internet, AI and cloud computing. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co.Ltd(688777) , Zwsoft Co.Ltd(Guangzhou)(688083) , Guangzhou Sie Consulting Co.Ltd(300687) , Huada Jiutian, Shangtang, etc.
2) industrial Digitization: the high boom in key fields such as finance, electric power and industry continues. It is recommended to pay attention to Yusys Technologies Co.Ltd(300674) , State Grid Information&Communication Co.Ltd(600131) , Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) .
3) public service: the digital transformation of government affairs continues to deepen, and the marginal change of medical it is obvious. It is recommended to pay attention to Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) , Fujian Boss Software Corp(300525) , Winning Health Technology Group Co.Ltd(300253) , Sichuan Jiuyuan Yinhai Software Co.Ltd(002777) , etc.
4) network security: the energy on the demand side gradually appears, and key network security manufacturers usher in an inflection point. It is recommended to pay attention to Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) , Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) , Beijing Infosec Technologies Co.Ltd(688201) , etc.
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