Summary and Prospect of commodity market
Supply disturbance resumed and commodities rebounded continuously
On Tuesday (January 11), China's commodity futures market closed mixed. Most of the black series rose, with stainless steel up more than 4%, iron ore up more than 2%, screw thread steel up nearly 2%, and power coal down more than 3%; Most energy chemicals fell, methanol fell by more than 3%, pulp and ethylene glycol fell by more than 2%, and soda ash rose by more than 4%; Most base metals rose, with Shanghai nickel up more than 3% and Shanghai aluminum up nearly 2%; Precious metals all rose, with Bank of Shanghai up more than 1%; Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) was mixed, with palm oil up nearly 1%, and Douyi and Douyi down nearly 1%.
Hot comment: Although the number of newly confirmed cases in the world has reached a new high and some countries have tightened epidemic prevention measures, the impact on the economy is limited. The economic data in Europe and the United States continue to strengthen. At the same time, with the support of China's steady growth policy, the economic data have stabilized and warmed up, the market sentiment has turned to optimism, and the commodities have rebounded. At present, the rapid spread of Omicron virus has obviously disturbed the supply chain, and the tight pattern of commodity supply has not been effectively alleviated, which has brought new support to commodities. However, the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates in advance continues to heat up, the probability of raising interest rates in March continues to rise, US bond interest rates rise rapidly, and the US dollar index rebounds again, which will suppress the space for the overall rebound of commodities.
1. Black building materials: the price of furnace charge is higher, and the steel is strong and volatile in the short term.
The heavy rain in Brazil affected iron ore production, the spot price of Chinese coke rose for three consecutive rounds, and the price of raw materials rose one after another, which brought strong support to the price of steel. In addition, based on the expectation of improving infrastructure investment after the spring, the winter storage value of steel appears, and the disk price is expected to still have strong support in the short term. However, the recovery of output, poor spot transactions and the re accumulation of inventory may suppress the space for the rebound of steel prices.
In the medium and long term, China's steady growth policy has accelerated since December. The central bank has released the base currency through two standard cuts, the one-year LPR interest rate has been lowered, and the Ministry of finance has issued the quota of special bonds in advance to support the accelerated development of new and old infrastructure. At the same time, the warmth of real estate policy is frequent, and the demand is expected to improve periodically. Under the background of low inventory, Once the demand improves, it will drive the steel price to rebound obviously, and there is still room for periodic rebound in steel price.
2. Base metals: changes in the Fed's monetary policy will affect the trend of metal prices.
Affected by the rise in energy prices, some smelters in Europe increased production reduction, exacerbated the supply shortage, which supported the rebound in aluminum prices. However, the rising expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in advance will lead to the rise of US bond interest rates and the rebound of US dollar index, which will suppress metal prices for a long time. From the perspective of fundamentals, on the one hand, the spot TC of copper concentrate rebounded, Las bambas copper mine will resume operation, and China's copper concentrate port inventory is high, and the supply of copper concentrate is temporarily loose; On the other hand, the weekly copper rod operating rate was 62.2%, down 4.38%, which has fallen for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to the shutdown and maintenance during New Year's day. With the Spring Festival approaching, some downstream enterprises are expected to stop production in succession after the middle of this month. On the whole, macro factors are intertwined, and the demand gradually weakens near the end of the year, but the inventory remains low, which gives some support to the copper price, and the copper price may continue to fluctuate.
Precious metals: due to the pressure of high inflation, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in advance continues to rise, and the table contraction operation is likely to start within the year. The US bond interest rate continues to rise, which has a strong suppression on gold in the short term. Focus on the forward-looking guidance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting this month on the prospect of raising interest rates during the year.
3. Energy and chemical industry: the differences are increasing, and the crude oil price may fall into shock.
At present, the market divergence has increased, and the rise of crude oil may slow down. On the one hand, the covid-19 epidemic situation continues to deteriorate, and many countries tighten epidemic prevention measures, so the demand is still facing more disturbances; On the other hand, OPEC + continues to adhere to the production increase plan of 400000 barrels / day, but smaller oil producing countries cannot achieve production increase, and there are still many uncertainties on the supply side. However, although the number of covid-19 infections in the United States continues to increase, the traffic congestion index and the number of airport security checks are at a high level, and the consumption of refined oil has not been affected. Therefore, the U.S. crude oil inventory remains de centralized, which will continue to support international oil prices. In the follow-up, we will continue to pay attention to the output policy of OPEC + and the trend of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.
4. Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) : the supply continues to be disturbed, and the high level of oil is strong and volatile.
Meidou: at present, the market focus turns to South America. The weather in southern Brazil and Argentina is dry, and the harvest is hindered by heavy rain in Mato Grosso, the main producing state. Meidou has support, and the short-term trend is strong.
Soybean oil: the monitoring shows that the recent soybean crushing volume will rise slightly, but the small package preparation before the Spring Festival continues to improve. As of the week of January 3, the soybean oil inventory of major oil plants in China was 780000 tons, basically the same as that of the same period last week, with a month on month decrease of 30000 tons. With the decline of China's soybean crushing profit, the enthusiasm of oil plants to start up is restrained, and the preparation before the Spring Festival will be started one after another, it is expected that the soybean oil inventory will remain low in the later stage.
Palm oil: sppoma data show that from January 1 to 10, horse palm production decreased by 32.10% month on month, narrower than the previous five days. At present, Malaysia's palm oil is still in the production reduction cycle, which interferes with the harvesting work due to the superposition of labor shortage and floods in Malaysia and China. It is expected that the output may not recover significantly before the first quarter. In addition, according to SGS data, from January 1 to 10, the export of horse palm decreased by 40.6% month on month, indicating that the export demand of palm oil was significantly weakened, dragging down the rise of palm oil.
With the continuous strengthening of the expectation of horse palm production reduction, the price of palm oil rebounded strongly, and there were also weather disturbances in beans, so the price trend of soybean oil was strong. However, horse palm exports fell sharply, indicating that the demand for palm oil is poor under high prices, which may limit the further strengthening of oil. On the whole, oil prices may remain high in the short term.
