Macro view:
1. The social finance data in December showed that the downward risk of real estate increased, the government financing increased, but there was no real estate support, the pressure of fiscal expenditure was still great, and the service industry was also under great pressure under the impact of the epidemic. Although the market expects good credit performance in January, the pace of China’s economic stabilization still needs to be observed.
2. Inflation expectations in the United States are down. Although the epidemic suppresses employment, the economic recovery is good. The recovery of capital expenditure promotes the rise of real interest rates. It is expected that the United States will maintain rapid economic growth and China’s exports will remain stable, but the structure has changed.
Market view:
1. The market style tends to be balanced in the short term, and the growth style will rebound in the short term after the rapid decline, but the main line of steady growth is not over, which suppresses the growth style.
2. In the short term, the anchor of China’s economic policy is not clear, and the deterioration of market profit-making effect drives the short-term market to weaken. As long as the monetary policy is not tightened, the release of market risk is coming to an end.
Trading strategy: 1. Be optimistic about the CSI 300 index and A50 Index, and pay attention to the risk of beta and small and medium-sized stocks caused by style deviation. 2. 2. Optimistic about automotive electronics, electric vehicle leaders, real estate, food and beverage. 3. Optimistic about the repair of Hong Kong stock Internet Index and the long-term upward trend of Nasdaq 100.
Market resumption: since the beginning of 2022, the market has continued to adjust, the performance of the sector has continued to weaken, and all sectors have fallen. Stability, phased adjustment of consumption style, with a large decline; The financial style fluctuated relatively little, and the growth style continued to decline. Most of the Shenwan level industries closed down, with medicine and biology, power equipment and non-ferrous metals leading the increase; Building materials, household appliances and building decoration decreased significantly.
Index performance: this week, most major indexes continued the downward trend of last week, with Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 leading the decline of 2.61%, gem and Kechuang 50 temporarily stopped falling and closed up 0.73% and 0.52%. The all a, CSI 300, CSI 500 and Shanghai composite indexes fell 1.12%, 1.98%, 1.32% and 1.63% respectively. The main indexes of US stocks closed lower.
Style performance: large, medium and small cap continued to decline, undervalued sector callback. This week, large cap stocks, medium cap stocks and small cap stocks fell by 1.91%, 2.61% and 1.90% respectively. In the valuation sector, the undervalued value fell slightly by 0.35%, while the overvalued value and medium valuation sectors fell by 0.96% and 2.73% respectively.
Short term market sentiment: compared with last week, the average daily turnover of major indexes has increased, the turnover rate of major indexes has decreased significantly month on month, and the fluctuation of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is relatively small. There is obvious differentiation in the activity of industry transactions. The northward capital continued to flow in, and the net capital inflow increased. During the week, the top three main inflow industries of land stock connect are: power equipment, banking and non-ferrous metals; The net outflow of non bank finance, medicine, biology and household appliances industries is large. The number of shares held by the northward capital industry increased week on month. The top three are: banking, non-ferrous metals and power equipment industry; The top three decreases are: steel, non bank finance and electronic industry. The implied volatility of SSE 50ETF option increased by 1.56 percentage points, and the current value is 16.88%; The current value of the S & P 500 volatility (VIX) index is 19.19, up 0.43 from the previous value.
Long term market sentiment: the yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 dividend – 10-year Treasury bond is currently – 0.79%, up 0.06 percentage points month on month, above the average and in the historical quantile of 53%; The current value of A-share implied equity risk premium (ERP) is 2.35%, up 0.09 percentage points month on month, in the historical quantile of 71%, up for three consecutive weeks, and the market risk appetite has decreased.
Risk tips
Economic downside risk; The epidemic rebound exceeded expectations; Liquidity tightening exceeded expectations; Overseas economic recovery is weaker than expected.
