Key points:
Event:
In December 2021, China's total import and export value was 586.53 billion US dollars, an increase of 20.3% year-on-year. Among them, the export was 340.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%; Imports amounted to US $246.04 billion, up 19.5% year-on-year.
The export boom continued, and the export of mechanical and electrical products increased rapidly
Although exports in December were lower than expected, the total volume hit a record high. From the perspective of export commodities, the export growth rate of luggage maintained the high growth trend of last month, but the year-on-year growth rate of clothing, furniture and lamps fell sharply. The export amount of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products reached a historical peak, up 18.1% and 23.1% respectively year-on-year, highlighting the improvement of China's industrial competitiveness and providing some support for China's exports.
The trade surplus reached an all-time high of $94.46 billion. With the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of vaccine injection, the repair of overseas production capacity began to accelerate, the self supply accelerated, and the convergence of supply and demand gap weakened the demand for Chinese imported goods. The new export orders of manufacturing PMI have been below the boom and bust line for eight consecutive months, and the new export orders of non manufacturing PMI have been below the boom and bust line for nine consecutive months, It is expected that the export driving effect will gradually decline this year. However, as the world's major exporters of consumer goods, Southeast Asian countries have suffered repeated impacts from the epidemic, highlighting the resilience of China's whole industrial chain. The supply substitution effect of China has further emerged, or continue to provide support for China's exports.
Import growth fell, and the volume and price of some commodities fell together
In December, the total import fell to 19.5% from 31.7% in the previous month. From the perspective of imported commodities, the import volume of iron ore and its concentrate, coal and lignite decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.0% and 20.8% respectively. However, the import volume of soybean and crude oil increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 17.9% and 19.9% respectively. Among them, the number of coal imports fell sharply, mainly affected by the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price. In the last two months of last year, the manufacturing PMI gradually rebounded above the boom and bust line, and domestic demand expanded.
External demand is strong, but the global economic recovery is still uneven
China's exports to the United States, the European Union and ASEAN increased by 21.2%, 25.6% and 12.0% respectively year-on-year. In December, the PMI of U.S. manufacturing industry reached 57.7%, shrinking compared with the previous month, but it is still at a high level. The economic recovery is strong, mainly due to the improvement of vaccination rate in developed economies, the economy took the lead in recovery, and the gap between supply and demand is gradually converging. However, at present, the United States and Europe are at the peak of infection due to the influence of Omicron. It is difficult to alleviate the pressure of the global supply chain in the short term. At this stage, they still have strong dependence on Chinese imports. On the whole, the PMI of developing countries is less than that of developed regions, the vaccination rate is low, the risk of repeated epidemic is high, the economic recovery is slower than that of developed countries, and it is difficult to eliminate in the short term. Before overseas mass immunization, short-term external demand still supports exports under the condition of dislocation recovery of residents' consumption demand and industrial chain supply.
Risk tips
The global epidemic exceeded expectations, and China US trade policy exceeded expectations.
