Event: in 2021, the total transportation turnover, passenger transportation volume and cargo and mail transportation volume completed by civil aviation of China increased by 7.3, 5.5 and 8.2 percentage points year-on-year, respectively, to 66.3%, 66.8% and 97.2% in 2019. The overall stability of routes and flights was basically maintained throughout the year.
Feng Zhenglin, director of Civil Aviation Administration of China, said at the 2022 civil aviation work conference that in 2022, civil aviation of China will strive to complete the total transportation turnover of 104 billion ton kilometers, 570 million passenger trips and 7.8 million tons of cargo and mail, which will generally return to the level of about 85% before the epidemic; Under the condition that the epidemic situation does not fluctuate repeatedly, we will strive to turn losses and increase profits in the industry as a whole. The average release normal rate and departure flight normal rate of airports above ten million levels in China will strive to reach 85%.
It is worth noting that the demand has improved slightly and the pressure of overseas input is large: the civil aviation data in December is better than that in November, but local epidemics have occurred in Xi’an, Anyang, Tianjin and other places in turn, and there are a large number of infected people, resulting in the continued suppression of industry demand.
The recent increase in overseas import pressure is noteworthy. Due to the rapid spread of Omicron mutant strain overseas, the number of flights in China has increased significantly. From January 1 to 13, 2022 alone, China implemented fuse measures 74 times and 198 flights.
The industry has been under the influence of the epidemic since August. As of the writing date of the report, half of January has passed. The epidemic situation in China is under control as a whole, but it is still far from dynamic clearing. Considering the decline of the Spring Festival, the increase of population mobility and the upcoming winter Olympic Games in Beijing in early February, we expect that China’s epidemic prevention measures will become stricter in the short term. Airlines need to adapt to the epidemic prevention mode of dynamic clearing and flexibly adjust flight configuration to minimize losses.
Shanghai’s main base airlines were obviously affected by the epidemic: the passenger occupancy rate of spring and autumn, Jixiang and China Eastern Airlines in December was generally poor due to the main base airport in Shanghai. Among them, the spring and autumn and auspicious seat rate decreased month on month in November, and the seat rate of China Eastern Airlines increased slightly month on month, but decreased by 22% compared with the same period in 19. The impact on Shanghai hub is also reflected in the capacity investment of relevant airlines. In December, the spring and autumn and auspicious transport capacity investment are relatively conservative, and the auspicious transport capacity investment continues to decline compared with November; The month on month increase of China Eastern Airlines’ transport capacity is also significantly lower than that of China Southern Airlines and Air China.
International Freight continued to boom: in last month’s report, we discussed the high-profile of recent air freight based on the freight data of Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) . In December Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , 787 was still used to carry out freight charter flights, and from the ton kilometer data of international freight revenue, the transportation intensity was greater than that in November, which was related to the replenishment before Christmas in December and the increased demand for epidemic prevention materials in overseas countries.
Risk warning: the duration of the epidemic exceeded expectations; Macroeconomic downturn; Changes in civil aviation policies; Geopolitical factors; Large fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rates; Abnormal weather factors, etc.
