Event: on January 17, the central bank launched 700 billion medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 100 billion open market seven-day reverse repurchase operations. The bid winning interest rates of MLF and reverse repurchase decreased by 10bp, 2.85% and 2.10% respectively.
Comments:
The landing of interest rate cut is conducive to the improvement of risk appetite. It is the first to promote the big wealth management track and is optimistic about the undervalued securities companies
(1) the timing and extent of the two policy interest rate cuts slightly exceeded market expectations. The implementation of the interest rate cuts released a clear signal of steady growth, which was conducive to the improvement of risk appetite in the equity market. From the stage of wide liquidity to wide credit, securities companies benefited significantly. From January 1 to April 19, 2019, the securities companies’ index rose by 52% and the excess return reached 15% (compared with the CSI 300 index). (2) Since the beginning of the year, the new development fund has been slightly lower than expected. The market is worried that the cold of new development will affect the wealth management track. We believe that new development has little impact on the retention scale and the profitability of the leading target. With the rolling stock, the replacement of fixed income products and the increase of market share, the retention scale and profit growth of the leading companies have strong support, and the performance stability and growth are expected to be gradually verified. (3) Since December 2021, the difference in the rate of return of the internal subject matter of the brokerage sector has more come from the transaction level, switching from growth to value. At present, the valuation of the subject matter of the brokerage big wealth management track has returned to a safe position, and the wide credit is expected to take effect, which is expected to boost the profit expectation and valuation revision. It is the first to promote the leading subject matter of the brokerage big wealth management, and is optimistic about the undervalued head brokerage with both attack and defense. Recommend China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) ; The beneficiary objects are Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) and China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) . It is recommended that Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) benefiting from broad credit and large market expectation difference.
The impact of new development funds on the ownership scale is limited, and the valuation of China stock market news, the leader of the channel side, has a safety margin
(1) in the first two weeks and nine trading days of January, 31 equity + mixed funds were newly established, with a scale of 24.3 billion, and the average scale of a single fund was 780 million. The average scale of a single fund was the same as that of 2021q4, and there was no significant improvement. We believe that stock market fluctuations are highly sensitive to the impact of short-term new issuance of partial stock funds, while the subscription and redemption of old funds are relatively “passive”. The stock market foundation brought by the high growth of new issuance for two consecutive years is good, and the continuation of net subscription will still drive the steady growth of the industry; Under the neutral assumption of – 30% new issuance, 85% redemption rate (redemption rate = redemption shares / subscription shares, which is expected to be 79% in 2021) and zero increase in the net value of partial stock funds, it is expected that the scale of partial stock and non stock ownership will be + 14% / + 18% respectively in 2022, and the average daily growth rate of non stock ownership will be more than 20%, which will still support the stable growth of the head company’s profits. (2) Considering the impact of debt to equity swap (equity expansion of 6.5%), China stock market news currently has a total market value of 362.1 billion, and the current share price corresponds to 43 / 33 times of PE in 2021 / 2022. The parent net profit CAGR is expected to reach 30% in the next five years. The valuation has a margin of safety, and the growth of the company’s non commodity holdings is expected to exceed expectations. Pay attention to the progress and performance data of short-term debt to equity swap.
The big wealth management leader is still the core of the beta of securities companies, with both attack and defense of securities companies that underestimate the value
(1) after the confirmation of broad credit, the market risk appetite is expected to be significantly improved. The growth attribute of big wealth management track has improved beta elasticity. At present, the valuation has a margin of safety. After deducting the net assets of non big wealth management business, the PE valuation corresponding to the profits of big wealth management line is 19 / 15 times in 2021 / 2022, After the confirmation of profit growth, the valuation will be revised. (2) The allotment of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) shares by the head securities firm is nearly completed, and the refinancing boots are on the ground. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is + 54.2% year-on-year, and roe12.2% 0%, refinancing is expected to optimize the company’s asset structure; The comprehensive registration system reform is good for head securities companies. There is broad space for capital intermediary businesses such as derivatives, securities lending and market making. The growth of fee based business is good, and the roe of head securities companies is expected to further rise. At present, the valuation of head securities companies is at the low point in recent three years, and they are optimistic about the valuation repair of head securities companies.
Risk tip: the sharp fluctuation of the stock market causes the uncertainty of securities companies’ profits; The scale expansion of public offering was less than expected.
