Photovoltaic starts a ten-year business cycle, driving the demand for adhesive film. Photovoltaic adhesive film is mainly used for the packaging of photovoltaic modules. It wraps the cell sheet and encapsulates it between photovoltaic glass and backplane. Its cost only accounts for about 7% of the cost of photovoltaic modules. However, its performance indicators such as light transmittance, shrinkage, peel strength and aging resistance are very important to the operation life of photovoltaic components and are the key materials to determine the quality and life of photovoltaic modules. Against the background of the rapid growth of global photovoltaic installed capacity, we predict that the global demand for photovoltaic adhesive film will be about 21.1/26.4/3.17 billion square meters from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 23% / 25% / 20%. By 2025, the global adhesive film market may reach 45.2 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 17%.
2022 is the release period of EVA particle capacity, and the upstream supply bottleneck will be alleviated soon. The main production raw materials of photovoltaic adhesive film are EVA particles and Poe particles. At present, the photovoltaic packaging adhesive film is mainly EVA adhesive film, and the cost of EVA particles accounts for more than 80% of the total cost of adhesive film products. According to the data of Jibang consulting, the demand for EVA particles in 2021 is about 780000 tons, and the supply is 710000 tons, including 400000 tons imported, and there is still a supply gap of 70000 tons. With the accelerated pace of production expansion of particle manufacturers, it is expected that the demand for EVA particles will be about 950000 tons in 2022, and the total supply from abroad will be 1.02 million tons, and the bottleneck of raw material supply will be greatly alleviated.
Industry competition pattern: the leading advantage is obvious, and the second tier enterprises intensify competition and seek breakthrough opportunities. The photovoltaic adhesive film market is highly concentrated. In 2020, the leading Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) market accounted for about 64%. Thanks to its advantages in capital strength, capacity scale, technology and raw material procurement, Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) has stronger profitability and comprehensive operation capacity than other comparable companies, and its leading position is unshakable in the short term. However, the market share of Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) will be difficult to further improve. On the one hand, the downstream component enterprises are in the perspective of supply chain security, or intend to support the second-line enterprises. On the other hand, the second-line adhesive film manufacturers are listed one after another, the capital strength and financing channels are improved, and the capacity expansion is accelerated, or it is expected to narrow the cost gap with the leaders. We believe that Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) will leave about 40% to other enterprises to stabilize the market share. We should pay attention to the second tier enterprises with capital and technical strength and rapid expansion of production capacity in the industry. If they can break through and become the second in the industry, they are expected to obtain about 20% of the market share in the industry.
Investment strategy: looking forward to 2022, the annual production capacity of adhesive film is far lower than that of silicon wafer, battery chip and other links, and the sales price of adhesive film is expected to remain strong; As the upstream raw material supply bottleneck is alleviated, the cost side pressure is expected to be released. Overall, the bargaining power and profitability of the film industry are expected to usher in an inflection point in 22 years. In the long run, as one of the key auxiliary materials of photovoltaic modules, the market scale will continue to expand and the product structure will continue to be optimized. The second tier enterprises will usher in the breakthrough opportunity period of competitive reshuffle. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading adhesive film leader Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) (603806. SH) with absolute comprehensive strength, Diversified polymer membrane platform enterprises Cybrid Technologies Inc(603212) (603212. SH) and Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) (688680. SH) with accelerated capacity expansion.
Risk warning: the global spread of covid-19 epidemic and its impact on social and economic activities deviate from expectations; The development direction of new technologies in photovoltaic and other fields may deviate from expectations; The main business development of relevant listed companies may be lower than expected.
