Events
On January 17, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the total retail sales of social consumer goods in December 2021 and the total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2021. In December 2021, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 4126.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7% and a month on month decrease of 0.18%; In 2021, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 44082.3 billion yuan, an increase of 12.5% over the previous year; The average growth rate in the two years was 3.9%.
Comments
The growth rate of social zero slowed down, and the recovery of consumption was still weaker than that in the same period before the epidemic. In December 2021, the total social retail sales increased by 1.7% year-on-year and 3.13% under the compound caliber, which is still weaker than the level in the same period before the epidemic (December 2019). Due to the high base effect in the same period of 2020, the current growth rate of social zero has slowed down. By region, the total amount of social zero in rural areas has increased by 2.80% year-on-year and the compound growth rate is 4.34%; The total social zero in urban areas increased by 1.50% year-on-year, with a compound growth rate of 2.94%, and the growth rate in rural areas was slightly better than that in urban areas. Classified by nature, retail sales in December 2021 increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with a compound growth rate of 3.74%; Catering revenue decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, and the compound growth rate decreased by 0.91%. The performance of commodity retail and catering was differentiated. Sporadic and repeated outbreaks led to slow repair of the catering industry.
Online commodity sales performance differentiation, must choose consumption to drive growth. In 2021, the retail sales of online commodities in food, clothing and use categories increased by 17.80%, 8.30% and 12.50% respectively year-on-year, and increased by 24.04%, 7.04% and 14.33% under the compound caliber. Among them, the online retail food category recovered the fastest, while the wear category recovered weakly, and the performance of online commodity sales was differentiated. In terms of sub categories, the growth rate of mandatory consumer categories is better than that of optional consumer categories, in which daily necessities perform prominently and improve month on month. Under the compound caliber, the year-on-year growth rate is 13.27%. The performance of optional consumption is relatively low. On the one hand, due to the differentiation of consumption recovery in the same period in 2020, the recovery of optional consumption is more prominent, and the growth rate slows down due to the high base effect; On the other hand, due to repeated outbreaks, the popularity of optional consumption has declined.
Throughout the year, there are several reasons why the recovery rate of consumption is slower than expected. First, although the unemployment rate moves down to the level of 2019, the disposable income of people on the demand side has not recovered to the level of the same period. The passive reduction of per capita disposable income has led to the downturn of holiday consumption. During the Spring Festival, Qingming Festival, labor day and the National Day holiday, the tourism income is only 82%, 57%, 77% and 60% of the level in the same period in 2019; Second, the epidemic situation in many places is sporadic and repeated, and policies such as "local new year" curb consumer demand. In 2021, the epidemic situation in many places was repeated, sporadic and frequent, superimposed with policy factors such as "local Chinese New Year", people's demand for going out decreased, and the recovery speed of consumption was weak.
Investment advice
Under the background of weak consumer repair, we should pay attention to two main investment lines: first, pay attention to the high quality and high quality track with long-term fundamentals and high quality driven by consumption upgrading, such as Baijiu and dairy products. Second, focus on the high-quality track with good margin under the background of the improvement of the epidemic situation. For example, in 2021, due to the rise of raw materials and the impact of community group purchase, the cost of raw materials fell and the price of quick-frozen food and leisure food under pressure. It is expected to enjoy the second boost of performance in 2022.
Risk tips
Tightening of industrial policies; Repeated outbreaks in China; Food safety issues.
