In 21 years, the sales of electric vehicles in the United States increased greatly, ending the sideways and opening the upward trend. In December 21, the sales volume of electric vehicles in the United States was 57000, with a year-on-year increase of 45%, a month on month increase of 23%, and the penetration rate reached 4.78%; In the year of 21, the annual sales volume was 608000, with a year-on-year increase of more than 80%, and the penetration rate reached 4.1%, which is still far lower than that in Europe and China; From 2010 to 2021, the cumulative sales of electric vehicles in the United States reached 2.232 million. In terms of models, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles in December was 40800, accounting for 71.4%; The annual sales volume of pure electric vehicles was nearly 450000, accounting for 74%, down from 20 years.
After the bill on rebuilding a better future, which includes the policy of increasing the tax credit for electric vehicles, was passed by the house of representatives in November 21, it is currently in the stage of Senate deliberation. Although the implementation of the policy was delayed due to the objections of individual members of the Democratic Party, its core controversy has nothing to do with new energy. We maintain our expectation of high growth in the U.S. electric vehicle market. It is expected that with the support of policies and the promotion of supply cycle, the U.S. Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car sales will reach 1.22 million in 22 years, doubling year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 7%; In 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will be 3.54 million, with a penetration rate of 20%; In 2030, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will be 9 million, achieving the medium-term penetration target of 50%. The ten-year compound growth rate from 2020 to 2030 will be 39%. The United States will become a new growth driver of global new energy vehicles.
Industry trends: a number of listed companies released performance forecasts for 2021. Last week, the share price of new energy automobile industry chain company rebounded, and the net value of new energy theme fund rebounded. By the end of the 21st century, the number of charging piles in China was 2.617 million, a year-on-year increase of 70.1%
Investment suggestion: with the strengthening of policy and auto enterprises, the penetration of new energy vehicles in the global market is ushering in a new round of acceleration, and the industry boom is rising. It is suggested to pay attention to the main line of new forces represented by Tesla and the catch-up process of new models such as Volkswagen, and recommend leading and second-line elastic targets. For the whole vehicle, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (2333. HK) and Geely Automobile (0175. HK) are highly recommended; In terms of battery materials, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) are recommended; In terms of motor electric control, it is recommended to pay attention to Wolong Electric Group Co.Ltd(600580) , Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) ; For lithium battery equipment, it is recommended to pay attention to Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) and Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) ; In terms of lithium and cobalt, it is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) .
Risk tips: 1. The growth rate of electric vehicle production and sales slows down. With the continuous growth of the production and sales base of new energy vehicles, it will be more and more difficult to maintain a high growth rate, and the introduction of mainstream models for the public has become the key; 2. The price war in the industrial chain intensified. The continuous decline of subsidies and the continuous investment of new production capacity have led to the pressure of price reduction in all links of the industrial chain; 3. The influx of overseas competitors accelerated. With the growth of the Chinese market and the dilution of subsidy policies, the pace of overseas giants entering the Chinese market is accelerating, which has a new impact on the industrial pattern.
