The National Bureau of statistics officially released the retail data of social consumer goods in December 2021 on January 17.
In December 2021, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 4126.9 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles were 3661.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%.
From January to December 2021, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 44082.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5% and an average growth rate of 3.9% in the two years. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles amounted to 397037.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%. After deducting price factors, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2021 increased by 10.7% over the previous year.
The social zero growth rate continued to decline, and consumer demand was weak, yet to recover. Affected by the multi-point spread of the epidemic throughout the country, social zero in December increased by 1.7% year-on-year, decreased by 2.2pct month on month, and the overall consumer demand was weak. By region, the growth rate in rural areas continued to be higher than that in urban areas: in December, the total retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas increased by 1.5% year-on-year and that in rural areas increased by 2.8% year-on-year. In terms of classification, commodities stabilized and catering continued to suffer setbacks: in December, the total retail sales of commodities increased by 2.3% year-on-year, of which the total retail sales of commodities above the quota increased by 1.7% year-on-year; The total catering retail sales decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, of which the total catering retail sales of units above the quota decreased by 0.1% year-on-year.
The required consumption remained stable, and the optional consumption was significantly under pressure. The growth rate of compulsory consumption was relatively stable. In December, it was 18.8% for daily necessities, 2.3% for clothing, 12.6% for beverages, 11.3% for grain, oil and food, 7.0% for tobacco and alcohol, and 9.4% for drugs. The growth rate of daily necessities and drugs increased month on month, and the decline of other categories except tobacco and alcohol was small month on month. Optional consumption was significantly under pressure. In December, it was 2.5% for cosmetics, 0.2% for jewelry, 6.0% for home appliances, 7.4% for cultural office, 3.1% for furniture, 0.3% for communications, 16.6% for petroleum products, 7.4% for automobiles, and 7.5% for building and decoration materials. The growth rate of other categories except communications decreased month on month, while the growth rate of cosmetics, jewelry, and home appliances decreased by 5.7pct, 5.9pct 12.6 CT decreased significantly.
The optional consumption was weak, the negotiated price decreased in December, and the year-on-year growth rate of physical commodity online in the current month was lower than that of social zero for the first time in history. From January to December, the cumulative retail sales of online food, clothing and use commodities increased by 17.8%, 8.3% and 12.5% year-on-year. The online retail sales of physical goods increased by 12.0%, accounting for 24.5% of the total retail sales of the society (the same as last month). According to our calculation, the year-on-year growth rate of online retail sales of physical goods in December was 1.4% (down 3.5pct month on month), which was lower than the overall level of social zero for the first time in history. We believe that: on the one hand, from the perspective of volume and price, according to the express data disclosed by the State Post Office, the number of express tickets increased by 10.7% (qoq-5.8pct) year-on-year in December, corresponding to the year-on-year decrease of 8.0% (QoQ + 0.2pct) of e-commerce ASP. The double drop of electricity negotiation price led to the downturn of online growth this month. On the other hand, in terms of categories, due to the significant double ten one siphon effect, some optional categories performed weakly in December. These categories accounted for a high proportion of social zero and were all online high penetration categories (such as clothing, cosmetics and household appliances), which dragged down the overall online growth in December. We use the category structure of retail sales above the limit in December to represent the overall social zero structure, and the overall online penetration rate of each category in 2020 to represent the online penetration rate of each category in December 2021 and December 2020. According to the fitting calculation, after excluding cars, the online and offline increased by 2.5% and 2.7% respectively year-on-year in December, It can be confirmed that the weak performance of optional consumer products led to the continued slowdown of online growth in December.
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Risk tips
Epidemic impact; Macroeconomic fluctuations; Consumption recovery is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies.
