Weekly performance of the sector: in the past two weeks, CSI 300 fell 4.32%, gem index fell 6.12%, food and beverage (CITIC) index fell 8.04%, with a relative return of – 3.72% compared with CSI 300, ranking 28th among CITIC’s 29 sub industries. In terms of molecular sectors, meat products sector fell by 0.01% in recent two weeks, condiments sector fell by 4.31% in recent two weeks, snack food sector fell by 6.24% in recent two weeks, quick-frozen food sector fell by 4.92% in recent two weeks, and other food sectors fell by 3.25% in recent two weeks.
Sector valuation level: this week, the PE (TTM) valuation of the food sector reached 43.20x, higher than the 8-year average (37.44x) and the 5-year average (38.61x), and the sector valuation decreased compared with the previous period. Among them, the PE valuation of meat products / condiments / snack foods / quick-frozen foods / other foods is 24.53/66.50/39.23/48.42/31.67 times respectively, which is -2.66% / 24.07% / – 0.75% / – 47.51% / – 33.69% higher than the 8-year average valuation respectively. The valuation of condiments is higher than the historical level, and the meat products, snack foods, quick-frozen foods and other foods are at a historically low level.
Weekly tracking of individual stocks: 1) in terms of the rise and fall of individual stocks, the five stocks with the highest share price increase in recent two weeks are Haixin Foods Co.Ltd(002702) / Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) / Shandong Huifa Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603536) / Yurun Food / Yantai Shuangta Food Co.Ltd(002481) ; 2) The five stocks with high average turnover rate in two weeks are Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) / Shandong Huifa Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603536) / Guangdong Jialong Food Co.Ltd(002495) / Shanghai Laiyifen Co.Ltd(603777) / Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) ; The five stocks with high weekly trading volume are Yantai Shuangta Food Co.Ltd(002481) / Guangdong Jialong Food Co.Ltd(002495) / Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) / Wanzhou International / Shandong Longda Meat Foodstuff Co.Ltd(002726) .
Industry highlights: 1) China Consumer Association named KFC and used limited edition blind box sales means to induce and connive consumers to purchase food packages in excess of their rationality. 2) With the Spring Festival approaching, the concept of “prefabricated dishes” has become a new favorite in the capital market.
Important announcements of food listed companies: 1) Toly Bread Co.Ltd(603866) : the company issued the performance express for the 21st year, realizing an operating revenue of 6.343 billion yuan / + 6.38%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 764 million yuan / – 13.51%, and a non net profit attributable to the parent company of 720 million yuan / – 13.85%. 2) Jiajia Food Group Co.Ltd(002650) : the company received a civil lawsuit involving an amount of 340 million yuan. 3) Shandong Huifa Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603536) : the shareholder zhenghechang Investment Co., Ltd. reduced 1 million shares of the company, accounting for 0.57% of the current total share capital of the company. 4) Longda food: the company plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary Bazhong Shandong Longda Meat Foodstuff Co.Ltd(002726) Products Co., Ltd. with its own capital of RMB 100 million in Bazhong City, Sichuan Province, to implement the “high-end meat products deep processing project of meat products production base in Western China” and the “1 million pigs slaughtering project in Enyang District, Bazhong City”.
Reminder of important matters in the later stage: convening of the extraordinary general meeting of shareholders: Nanfang Black Sesame Group Co.Ltd(000716) , Huabao Flavours & Fragrances Co.Ltd(300741) , Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , Jinzi Ham Co.Ltd(002515) , Guilin Seamild Foods Co.Ltd(002956) , Ganso Co.Ltd(603886) , Longda food.
Suggested combination this week: Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298)
Investment proposal and investment object
Recently, the epidemic situation in duodi Omicron has been disturbed, the number of new cases has reached a new high in recent two weeks, and the epidemic prevention policies in various regions have been tightened. It is expected that the Spring Festival will still focus on local Spring Festival and home consumption. It is suggested to pay attention to the quick-frozen food benefiting the home economy; At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the conceptual target of prefabricated dishes and optimize the layout of companies with channel and supply chain advantages.
Quick freezing: because the epidemic disturbs the catering demand, the dynamic sales of end B are less than expected, and the epidemic in Henan, a large province of quick freezing, also interferes with production and logistics, while end C relatively benefits from the growth of family demand brought by the local Chinese New Year. It is suggested to pay attention to Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) (002216, buy) with the continuous promotion of channel reform. At the same time, the concept of prefabricated dishes is hot. Specifically, due to the medium and long-term space of the industry, the new involvement of many listed companies, the recent repeated epidemic situation and the local Chinese new year, the orders of prefabricated dishes have increased rapidly and the attention has increased; However, the industry threshold is low, there are many participants, and the development is still early, there are few mature products, or there are short-term overheating and long-term space uncertainty risks; It is recommended to focus on companies with channel and supply chain advantages, such as Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) (603345, overweight).
Condiment: the share price of the sector has weakened in the past two weeks, which has aroused market concerns due to the switching of market style (increased attention of small tickets) and local epidemics in Tianjin. It is suggested to pay attention to the individual stocks that have a smooth price increase due to the industry pattern and product characteristics and have little impact on sales volume, as well as the individual stocks that are more likely to fall in cost, have large profit elasticity after the fall in cost and are expected to retain the price increase effect, such as Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) (600298, buy), Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) (002507, not rated).
Snack food: under the pressure of the industry for 20 to 21 years (channel reform, cost rise, etc.), companies in the industry have made strategic adjustment and positive reform. 22 years is a year in which the results of the industry reform are gradually emerging. It is recommended to pay attention to the individual stocks Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (002557, buy) with marginal improvement due to the reform (implementation of price increase policy, positive expansion of distribution channels, etc.), At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) (603719, increased holdings) with excellent medium and long-term value and strong business robustness.
Risk tips
Rising raw material costs, intensified industry competition, sudden food safety incidents, etc
