Core view:
Accelerate the development of digital economy and grasp the trend opportunities of the computer industry. The State Council issued the notice on the 14th five year plan for digital economy development (hereinafter referred to as the plan), which once again emphasizes the importance of data elements; Quantifying the main indicators of digital economy development in the 14th five year plan: the proportion of the added value of core industries in the digital economy in GDP increased from 7.8% to 10%, software and information technology services increased from 8.16 trillion to 14 trillion, online government service users increased from 400 million to 800 million, and the popularity of industrial Internet platforms increased from 14.7% to 45%; Focus on Jiangsu Nonghua Intelligent Agriculture Technology Co.Ltd(000816) and the digital transformation of seven key industries: water conservancy, intelligent manufacturing, industrial interconnection, e-commerce, smart logistics, finance and energy, and the cloud rate of enterprises is expected to increase; Emphasis was placed on making up for the shortcomings of key technologies, taking the lead in layout, integration and innovation of cutting-edge technologies, and the information and innovation industry benefited fully. Enhance the government’s digital governance capability and network security protection capability, and improve the network security situation awareness, threat discovery, emergency command, collaborative disposal and attack traceability capability. It is suggested to focus on four main lines: Pan security (Xinchuang + Network Security + industrial software), cloud computing, energy it and intelligent vehicle.
In the field of information technology and innovation, the party and government took the lead and the industry accelerated. Basic software (including industrial software) benefits the most, and network security is a track of long-term and stable growth. The Ministry of industry and information technology recently intensively issued relevant documents, pointing out that the “14th five year plan” period will focus on the software industry chain and focus on three aspects: first, stabilize the upstream and consolidate the basic software strength upstream of the industrial chain such as development environment and tools. Second, attack the middle reaches and improve the software level of the middle reaches of the industrial chain such as industrial software, application software, platform software and embedded software. Third, optimize the downstream and increase the supply of information technology service products downstream of the industrial chain. We believe that at present, with the participation and guidance of China Electronics, China Electronics Technology and Huawei, the information innovation industry chain has initially formed a closed loop of the whole industry chain from the bottom software and hardware to the upper application software. The weaknesses of the short board of the industrial chain are still the key development areas, including basic software (operating system, database, middleware, etc.), industrial software (including R & D and design software such as CAD / CAE / EDA, as well as industrial control software such as PLC / DCS / SIS). In addition, network security is a track of high prosperity and steady growth that deserves long-term attention. It is recommended to track from short, medium and long-term 3D. Short and medium term: policy is still the driving factor, and great attention should be paid to the changes of legal rules. Ultra short term: focus on event driven. Long term: a company with strong comprehensive strength, wide product coverage or forward-looking layout of new safety track.
The digital economy promotes the growth of downstream data volume, industrial transmission is released from the lowest infrastructure, and the cloud computing industry is the first to benefit. From 1g / 2G / 3G / 4G to 5g / 6G, from PC Internet, mobile Internet to aiot or metauniverse, each generation of Internet transformation and digital economy upgrading can bring a new round of technological dividend release, and give birth to new computing leaders (such as Intel and Qualcomm), algorithm leaders (such as Microsoft, Google and byte beating), terminal leaders (such as Nokia and apple) and corresponding business forms. At this time, we focus on the progress and investment opportunities of the cloud computing industry supported by computing power under the promotion of the development of digital economy. According to the data forecast of the development research center of the State Council, it is expected that the cloud rate of the Chinese government and large enterprises will exceed 60% by 2023. With the business model innovation, business process reconstruction and deepening management reform of the Chinese government and enterprises, the improvement of networking and intelligent transformation demand brought by the digital economy will drive the accelerated development of the cloud trend of the government and large enterprises, and the cloud will enter the conventional stage.
Under the background of the “double carbon” policy and the vigorous development of new energy industry, the energy it system has ushered in major development opportunities. The incremental space is reflected in three parts: 1. Firstly, the structure of energy system will be transformed into centralized and distributed coordination, and the distributed structure will produce huge incremental development space in the evolution trend of energy Internet. 2. We are optimistic about the construction needs of three key links in the distributed structure of energy system: energy storage (energy storage system), microgrid and virtual power plant; 2. The new power system needs the digital transformation of the power grid. We are optimistic about the growth of intelligent sensing, platform and terminal applications of the Internet of things in the construction of digital power grid, as well as the growth of the demand for intelligent power operation, maintenance and monitoring; 3. Development of energy management services, urban charging stations, smart parks and other operation services.
The prosperity of intelligent vehicles continued, and the development of automotive chips and related software accelerated. The reform of automotive electronic and electrical architecture will have a far-reaching impact on the industrial chain, and the value of the industrial chain will be redistributed. From a large perspective, we believe that there are two main impacts: 1. Some markets of traditional vehicle chips will be replaced by AI chips. Under the centralized architecture, the number of ECUs will decrease significantly, and the increase of vehicle functions is no longer the accumulation of the number of ECUs, but depends on the computing power of the domain controller. The application of AI chip is rising. Software manufacturers deeply bound with core chips benefit the most. 2. The proportion of software value has greatly increased. Under the centralized architecture, new links in the industrial chain include domain controllers, software operating systems, middleware and algorithms, and the industrial pattern has changed. Intelligent cockpit domain and autopilot domain are the focus of industry attention and competition. Among them, the intelligent cockpit is expected to take the lead in large volume due to its low security level and technical difficulty; In terms of automatic driving, we expect that the large-scale business of L4 in complex scenes will take several years, mainly due to the high cost of lidar. However, in a relatively simple commercial vehicle scenario, it can be realized without lidar, and it is helpful to realize economic benefits. It is expected to be the first to realize large-scale application.
It is recommended to pay attention to cloud computing related subjects: Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) (000977. SZ), Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) (603019. SH), Rockchip Electronics Co.Ltd(603893) (603893. SH), Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) (600845. SH), Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) (600588. SH), Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) (688111. Sh), Glodon Company Limited(002410) (002410. SZ), Servyou Software Group Co.Ltd(603171) (603171. SH); Pan security (covering network security, basic software of Xinchuang and industrial software): Beijing Tongtech Co.Ltd(300379) (300379. SZ), Zhongfu Information Inc(300659) (300659. SZ), Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) (300454. SZ), Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) (688023. SH), Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) (688561. SH), Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co.Ltd(688777) (688777. SH), Zwsoft Co.Ltd(Guangzhou)(688083) (688083. SH); Energy it related targets: Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) (300682. SZ), Beijing Forever Technology Co.Ltd(300365) (300365. SZ), State Grid Information&Communication Co.Ltd(600131) (600131. SH), Willfar Information Technology Co.Ltd(688100) (688100. SH), Beijing E-Techstar Co.Ltd(300513) (300513. SZ,), Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) (688191. SH); Smart car related targets: Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) (300496. SZ), Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (002920. SZ), Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) (002405. SZ), etc.
The risk that the promotion of risk warning policy fails to meet the expected risk; The risk that the industrial development progress does not meet the expectations; The risk of intensified industry competition; Risks such as order delay caused by the epidemic.
