The National Bureau of statistics released the retail sales data of social consumer goods in December 2021. In December, the total social retail sales increased by 1.7% year-on-year, of which the catering revenue decreased year-on-year, the growth rate of retail sales of tobacco and alcohol decreased, and the retail sales of grain and oil, food and beverage maintained double-digit growth.
In December 2021, the total social retail sales increased by + 1.7% year-on-year, the catering revenue decreased year-on-year, and the growth rate of tobacco and alcohol retail sales decreased to single digits. (1) Total social zero: in December, the total social zero was + 1.7% year-on-year, with a growth rate of -2.9pct year-on-year and -2.2pct month on month; After deducting price factors, the actual total social zero in December was – 0.5% year-on-year, with a growth rate of -5.4pct year-on-year and -1.0pct month on month. (2) Catering consumption: Catering revenue was – 2.2% year-on-year, with a growth rate of – 2.6pct year-on-year and – 0.5pct month on month; The catering revenue of Enterprises above designated size was – 0.1% year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 3.7pct and a month on month growth rate of + 0.2pct. In December, the catering revenue continued to decline. We judged that it was related to the impact of epidemic spread in some areas. (3) Food and beverage consumption: the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol increased by + 7.0% year-on-year, with a growth rate of – 13.9pct year-on-year and – 6.3pct month on month. The growth rate of retail sales of tobacco and alcohol decreased significantly in December. We judge that it is related to the high base in the same period of last year, with a growth rate of 20.9% in December of 20 years. The retail sales of grain, oil and food increased by + 11.3% year-on-year, with a growth rate of + 3.1pct year-on-year and – 3.5pct month on month; Beverage retail sales increased by + 12.6% year-on-year, maintaining double-digit growth, with a year-on-year growth rate of -4.5pct and a month on month growth rate of -2.9pct.
In 2021, the total social retail sales increased by + 12.5% year-on-year, the catering revenue exceeded the level in the same period in 2019, the retail sales of tobacco, alcohol and beverage increased by more than 20%, and the retail sales of grain, oil and food maintained a double-digit growth. (1) In 2021, the cumulative catering revenue was + 18.6% (year-on-year growth rate + 35.2pct), which was + 0.4% compared with the same period in 2019. The retail sales of tobacco and alcohol increased by + 21.2% (year-on-year growth rate + 15.8pct), and + 22.4% compared with the same period in 2019. The two-year compound growth rate of retail sales of tobacco and alcohol was better than the catering data. We judged that the main reasons were the increase in gift demand and the upgrading of product structure. The retail sales of grain, oil and food increased by + 10.8% (year-on-year growth rate + 0.9pct), which was + 15.4% compared with the same period in 2019. The consumption rigidity was strong and was less affected by the epidemic. Retail sales of beverages increased by + 20.4% year-on-year (growth rate + 6.4pct year-on-year), and + 33.8% compared with the same period in 2019. (2) Looking at the data of the fourth quarter alone, the catering revenue was – 1.1% year-on-year, the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol were + 10.3%, the retail sales of grain, oil and food were + 10.8% year-on-year, and the retail sales of beverages were + 14.5% year-on-year. Catering revenue was greatly affected by the epidemic, and the retail sales of tobacco, alcohol, grain, oil, food and beverage achieved double-digit growth.
The latest ideas: 1, Baijiu, the growth of the performance of high certainty, the spread of the epidemic led to callbacks, but ushered in the layout of the time. (1) The recent correction is mainly due to the nationwide spread of the epidemic before the peak season of the Spring Festival. In addition, the weakening expectation of Maotai price increase, the concern of consumption tax rate adjustment and the expectation of overseas interest rate increase also affected the market sentiment. Baijiu Baijiu (2) looks forward to 2022. We think Baijiu is still the best sub sector with certainty. Due to the change of income structure, ratchet effect and concentration of liquor consumption, liquor consumption shows strong toughness, especially the high-end liquor. Judging from the rhythm of payment by major companies, the Spring Festival sales in 2022 is worth looking forward to. Focus on deterministic growth varieties and improved undervalued varieties, including Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) , and Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) . 2. Food, the darkest hour has passed. In 2022, dairy, leisure, quick-frozen and soft drinks will have the opportunity to choose the layout. (1) High end white milk and low-temperature white milk are favored by consumers due to their nutritional health. The change of consumption habits will promote these categories to maintain high growth. In the short term, there are many leading opportunities for dairy products, the competition pattern continues to improve, and the performance release power is strong. (2) Quick frozen food, pay attention to the growth opportunities of segments such as Guangzhou style quick frozen. (3) Snack food, companies will continue to improve in 2022. (4) Focus on He Bei Cheng De Lolo Company Limited(000848) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Three Squirrels Inc(300783) , and pay attention to Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) .
Risk warning. The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the price fluctuation of raw materials and food safety problems
