\u3000\u3000 Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) (688200)
Event: the company released the annual performance forecast for 2021. The estimated net profit in 2021 is about 422 million yuan ~ 465 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 111.95% ~ 133.54%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 417-460 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 181.86% – 210.93%.
The annual performance is bright, and seasonal fluctuations affect Q4 performance: the company expects the annual net profit attributable to the parent company to increase significantly year-on-year, mainly due to strong industry demand and booming production and marketing, which promote the improvement of the company’s profitability. At the same time, the company’s product structure continues to upgrade and improve the company’s competitiveness. From the Q4 single quarter, the median value of the net profit attributable to the parent company in the performance forecast was 133 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 114.52% and a month on month decrease of 18.40%; The median value of the guidelines for deducting non parent net profit was 118 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 257.58% and a month on month decrease of 32.95%. The month on month decrease of Q4 parent net profit was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations and the lag of downstream customers in the delivery and acceptance progress of the company’s equipment.
The demand for power products is growing rapidly, and SOC has opened up new growth space: the company’s testing machine products include sts8200 and sts8300. At present, the main product is sts8200, which is mainly used for traditional simulation and hybrid testing, and can also be used for the testing of power devices such as IGBT, SiC and Gan. It has contributed more than 80% of the company’s overall revenue in the first three quarters of 2021. It has been more than 10 years since the launch of sts8200. By the end of Q3, the global installed capacity of sts8200 series equipment has exceeded 4000. Sts8300 is a new test system launched by the company in 2018. It can test analog and mixed signal integrated circuits with higher pin number, higher performance and more stations. It is mainly for PMIC and power SOC testing. At present, the installed capacity is increasing rapidly. From the downstream demand, the demand for power products is growing rapidly, and the proportion of related products in the company’s revenue continues to increase, benefiting from the application drive such as electric vehicles and photovoltaic. In addition, compared with traditional analog testing machines, SOC testing machines have a broader market space and are expected to open up new growth space in the future. In terms of production capacity, the company settled in Tianjin production base in September 2021 to expand production capacity. At present, Tianjin production base has three production lines, two sts8200 production lines and one sts8300 production line respectively, which further ensures the equipment supply capacity of the company. In the future, the market share of the company in the global testing machine is expected to be further improved.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 916 million yuan, 1276 million yuan and 1728 million yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 441 million yuan, 606 million yuan and 817 million yuan respectively, maintaining the “overweight-a” investment rating.
Risk tip: downstream demand attenuation risk, market competition risk, product R & D less than expected, customer expansion less than expected.
