\u3000\u3000 Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) (600690)
Key investment points
The profitability has been realized and the overseas layout has entered the harvest season
1) the company’s overseas business revenue in the first three quarters of 21 years was + 16.8% year-on-year; The operating profit margin increased by 1.7pct compared with the same period last year. The company adheres to independent brand creation and leads the industry in brand growth. The growth rates of Haier’s overseas sub brands GEA, FPA and candy are 2x, 2x and 3x of that of the local industry respectively, and the overseas business sector continues to expand. By region, the revenue growth rates of India, Thailand and Russia in the first three quarters of 2021 were 43%, 32% and 30% respectively.
2) Haier adheres to the high-end and scenario layout, and empowers the overseas market with the experience of Chinese layout; Grasp the trend of overseas online channels and digital marketing, and continuously improve the proportion of online sales. The online revenue of high-end brands such as caf é, profile and Monogram in the North American market has increased rapidly.
The high-end series grew rapidly, and the scene brand created a family ecology
1) China’s high terminal brand Casati’s market share of high-end household appliances in 2021 will be 40% +, and its revenue will increase by 40% +. By category, the revenue of Casati air conditioner in the first three quarters increased by 71.1% year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the market share of Casati’s high-end air conditioner (4000 yuan + on hook, 10000 yuan + cabinet machine) reached 20.8%, an increase of 5.6pct year-on-year. In addition, overseas high-end brands are also expanding rapidly. The revenue growth rate of CAF é, a high terminal brand in the United States, is three times that of the industry level, and the revenue growth rate is 37% +.
2) as of December 2021, Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) has opened 1073 three winged bird stores nationwide, with a customer unit price of 200000 yuan. Three wing bird integrates home decoration and home resources, which helps to realize scene and set sales, seize the front-end flow of home decoration consumption, and realize the transformation and upgrading of dealers.
Profit forecast and valuation
Looking forward to this year, in terms of domestic sales, with the promotion of systematization and the development of kitchen electricity and air conditioning, Casati will continue its high growth momentum and lead the growth of revenue; At the same time, the whole process efficiency will be improved through digital transformation, and the profitability of domestic sales will be further improved. Overseas, the recent real estate sales in the United States are good, and the overseas business performance is worth looking forward to through high-end licensing and operation. We believe that in the next few years, the company’s global operation will usher in a harvest period, the management of domestic and foreign sales business will be improved, the operation efficiency will be improved, and the profitability will be continuously improved. At the same time, the company’s long-term brand layout through smart family and three winged bird scene has a promising future. To sum up, the company’s EPS is expected to be 1.40/1.65/1.90 yuan in 21-23 years, and the corresponding PE is 21x / 18x / 16x respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The price rise of raw materials exceeded expectations; The demand is less than expected; Intensified market competition
