\u3000\u3000 Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) (002258)
Performance review
On January 17, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. The company expects to achieve an operating revenue of RMB 6.494 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 30.7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.072 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 75.17%. In the fourth quarter, the company realized an operating revenue of 2.214 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 460 million yuan, with a performance exceeding expectations.
Business analysis
The production and operation of Mianyang base returned to normal. The company's Mianyang production base temporarily stopped production in July 2021. On September 29, the company announced that the rectification of hidden dangers of some production lines of the company had passed the acceptance of local regulatory authorities, and some production lines had resumed production.
The price of glufosinate is running at a high level, and the cost of glufosinate can be further reduced after the company's glufosinate is combined. According to the data of Baichuan information and Sino-Agri Leading Biosciences Co.Ltd(603970) , the average price of glufosinate in 2021 was 250000 yuan / ton, up 110000 yuan / ton from 140600 yuan / ton in 2020. The average price in the fourth quarter is 360000 yuan / ton. At present, the supply and demand pattern of the industry is tight. We believe that there is no new production capacity of glyphosate in the first half of 2022, and the price of glyphosate is expected to remain high. The 10000 ton capacity of the company's Guang'an base began to merge the methyl phosphorus dichloride project in December 2019. According to the company's announcement, the Guang'an Lear methyl phosphorus dichloride project is in normal trial operation at present; We expect that the cost of glyphosate will be further reduced after the completion of line merging.
Reserve multiple products, and the future growth is worth looking forward to. In the future, the company plans to build a 3000 ton l-glufosinate project in Guang'an base and a 20000 ton l-glufosinate project in Mianyang base. In addition, the company also reserves a series of new products such as oxazolidinyl ester and chlorfenoxamide, and actively distributes the field of preparations, so as to have a better growth space in the future.
Investment advice
The medium and long-term glyphosate business trend is upward, and the continuous production capacity of Guang'an project supports the performance growth; We revised the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 1.072 (+ 14%), 14.01 (+ 19.7%) and 1.573 (+ 15.6%) billion (the pre forecast values were RMB 940 million, RMB 1.17 billion and RMB 1.36 billion); EPS is 2.04, 2.67 and 2.99 yuan respectively. The current market value corresponds to PE of 16.3x, 12.5x and 11.1x respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips
The construction progress of Guang'an project is less than expected; The price of pesticide products fell; Demand for pesticides fell.
