\u3000\u3000 Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) (605499)
China's energy beverage market has a large space for future demand. With the continuous expansion of consumer groups, the diversification of consumption scenes and the continuous enrichment of brands, the consumption of energy drinks in China is increasing. In 2019, the sales scale of energy drinks in China has increased to 42.775 billion yuan, which is one of the fastest growing beverage categories. However, there is still a certain gap between the scale of China's energy beverage market and overseas developed regions. The per capita consumption of energy drinks in China is only 10% - 20% of that in Britain, Japan and the United States. Compared with the per capita consumption of foreign countries, there is still much room for the future demand of energy drinks in China.
We are optimistic about the development prospect of new products and are expected to become a new engine for the development of the company. Energy beverage manufacturers have certain barriers to entry in the production process because they need to obtain the approval certificate of health food. As the leader of energy drinks, after a long time of research and development and market test, the efficacy, flavor, taste and packaging of Dongpeng special drink have been recognized by the market. In addition to Dongpeng special drink, the company has also cultivated a series of products such as orange lemon tea, Chenpi special drink, cool drink and packaged drinking water. The solid product foundation has formed the internal core competitiveness of the company, and the new products will also become the second growth curve of the company's development.
Three potential development regions boost the nationalization of the company. At present, the company's main market is in Guangdong. From the perspective of sales outlets, the terminal of the company's sales outlets accounts for only about 1 / 4 of the country, and there is still 3 / 4 space to develop. The company is also committed to promoting nationalization. According to the data disclosed in the third quarterly report, the East China market increased by 72% year-on-year, the southwest market increased by 62.14% year-on-year, and the central China market increased by 43.28% year-on-year. East China, southwest, central China and North China have become the potential areas for the development of the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: we are optimistic about the future growth space of the energy beverage track. As the industry itself has high barriers, as a leading enterprise in the industry, it is expected to benefit from the growth of the industry. Optimistic about the company's efforts in category expansion and channel expansion, and judge that the company's performance has the ability to maintain rapid growth. It is estimated that the company's sales revenue will increase by 31.12% and the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 33.64% in 2022. The corresponding valuation of the current stock price is 40.7 times, which is covered with the "strongly recommended" rating for the first time.
Risk tip: the macro-economy fluctuates greatly, the epidemic has a great impact on consumption, and the company's operation has major defects.
