\u3000\u3000 Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) (002049)
Key investment points
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.9-2.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 136% – 160%
Announcement of performance increase in 2021: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.9-2.1 billion yuan in the whole year, with a year-on-year increase of 136% – 160%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 170000-190000, with a year-on-year increase of 144% – 173%; The downstream demand of the company’s integrated circuit business is strong, the special integrated circuit business has achieved rapid growth, contributed to continuous and stable profits, the profitability of the intelligent security chip business has been continuously improved, and the performance has improved significantly compared with the same period last year. In addition, the business of associates developed rapidly and made profits during the reporting period.
In the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 3.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 63%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 113%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.36 billion, a year-on-year increase of 118%.
China microelectronics: the leader of special integrated circuits, benefiting from import substitution + category expansion + increased market share
Products: it covers nearly 500 varieties of seven series, including high-performance microprocessors, high-performance programmable devices, storage devices, bus devices, network buses and interfaces, simulator devices, SOPC system devices and custom chips. The application of special integrated circuits is the key to the intellectualization and miniaturization of modern weapons and equipment;
Status: China’s leading special integrated circuit, products are widely used in national defense, civil vehicle and other scenes;
Market scale: benefiting from “increased import substitution rate + category expansion + increased proportion of national defense equipment informatization + large volume of downstream mounted models + increased market share”, it is estimated that the company’s cumulative market scale in the next 10 years will be 133 billion, with a compound growth rate of 30%, and the total revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 16.4 billion, with a compound growth rate of 69%
Ziguang same core: high-end intelligent security chip, Internet of things development + 5g, broad construction space
Products: smart card security chip and terminal security chip, providing terminal products and solutions based on security chip for customers in communication, finance, industry, automobile, Internet and other fields;
Position: smart card chip is the second largest manufacturer in China (market share: 11%), and high R & D investment will support the company to continue to develop downstream application markets such as vehicle, Internet of things and 5g in the future;
Market scale: benefiting from the rapid growth of demand for “Internet of things terminal + 5g communication + improvement of domestic substitution rate”, the company is expected to have a cumulative market scale of 34.5 billion in the next 10 years, with a compound growth rate of 14%; The revenue in the next three years will be RMB 1.7 billion / 2.1 billion / 2.4 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 25 / 20 / 20% and a compound growth rate of 22%.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.92/3.09/4.36 billion, with a growth rate of 138% / 61% / 41% respectively, a compound growth rate of 51%, pe70 / 43 / 31 times, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
Risks such as the failure of timely bidding for new equipment models and the lower than expected demand for electronic informatization of national defense equipment.
