\u3000\u3000 Hob Biotech Group Corp.Ltd(688656) (688656)
Event: the company announced that some of its allergic chemiluminescence products have obtained EU CE certification, and some chemiluminescence free and allergic products have been registered with the UK drug and Health Products Administration (MHRA).
The products have obtained EU CE certification, and the overseas market is expected to bring incremental performance to the company. The company’s revenue mainly comes from China. In 2020, the company’s overseas revenue accounted for less than 5%. This time, the company obtained the EU CE certification of allergic chemiluminescence products, together with the EU CE certification of autoantibody chemiluminescence products, enriched the overseas detection menu of the company’s chemiluminescence platform, The chemiluminescence platform has the qualification to sell allergens and autoimmune products in EU countries and CE certified countries and regions, further improves the company’s international competitiveness, and plays a positive role in the company’s expansion of overseas sales product categories and international business development. It is expected that the overseas market is expected to bring certain performance increment to the company.
There is a huge space for the Global Allergy and free testing industry, and the competition pattern remains good. The scale of the global allergy diagnosis market has gradually increased from US $3.49 billion in 2017 to US $4.7 billion in 2020. It is expected to reach US $5.74 billion in 2022. The global free market is expected to grow from US $3 billion in 2017 to US $4.5 billion in 2022, with a compound growth rate of about 9%. At present, the number of enterprises participating in allergy detection and self exemption detection in the world is relatively small, and the competition pattern is good. At present, the company continues to launch chemiluminescence products, the product competitiveness is continuously enhanced, and it is expected to seize a certain market share in the overseas market.
There is a large market space for allergy and self free testing, and the import substitution can be expected. The company is in a leading position in the field of allergy detection products in China. The detection products cover 79 kinds of IgE allergens and 80 kinds of food specific IgG allergens. At present, the company continues to increase R & D investment. In the future, the detectable projects of single point detection and combined detection of allergens will cover 111 allergy detection projects. It is expected that with the increase of allergen types, the company’s industry position is expected to be further consolidated. China’s free testing market is mainly occupied by overseas companies, and there is a large space for import substitution in the future. Compared with imported manufacturers and traditional methodologies, the company has more advantages in the chemiluminescence technology platform. The full-automatic chemiluminescence technology of nano magnetic particles can achieve accurate quantification, higher detection sensitivity, precision and efficiency, significantly leading test flux, relatively simple operation and sufficient import substitution power, which is expected to become a new growth point.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.65 yuan, 2.14 yuan and 2.73 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 38 times, 29 times and 23 times respectively. The company is a leading enterprise in allergy and self exemption testing in China. The allergy testing industry is leading and is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth. Self exemption testing is the first to launch chemiluminescence self exemption testing, accelerate the possibility of import substitution, be optimistic about the long-term development of the company and maintain the “hold” rating.
Risk tips: risk of policy changes in the pharmaceutical industry; The development of innovative drugs is less than the expected risk; Order fluctuation risk.
