\u3000\u3000 Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) (600702)
Matters:
On January 18, the company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021. In 2021, the company expects the operating revenue to increase by about 83% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.23-1.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 112% - 121%; The non net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.19 billion to RMB 1.24 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 116% - 125%.
Ping An View:
The profit increased steadily and the whole year ended smoothly. The company's annual operating revenue is expected to increase by about 83% year-on-year in 21 years, and the operating performance is significantly improved compared with the same period of last year, mainly due to the low base under the influence of the epidemic in 20 years; The company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.23 billion-1.28 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 112% - 121%. The whole year ended smoothly and the performance met expectations.
Implement the strategy of old wine, and the forward-looking layout is effective. The company set up the old wine business department at the end of 19, adhered to the "3 + 6 + 4" marketing strategy of old wine, and actively carried out channel optimization. In 2021, with the gradual control of China's epidemic situation, the market of high-end liquor was warmed up, and the strategic effect of the company's forward-looking layout of Baijiu liquor appeared. As an expanding liquor enterprise, the company continues to promote channel sinking and is expected to remain highly elastic in 22 years. Through channel research, the company's recent cash collection and dynamic sales are in good condition, and is expected to usher in a good start to the Spring Festival.
Comply with the rising price tide of the industry and improve brand value. At the end of 2021, the industry ushered in a wave of price increases, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , wine learning and other industries have raised brand prices to meet the return of brand value. On December 13, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) adjusted the price system of collection shede series products, 38 / 42 / 52% vol taste shede (Collection), the ex factory price was increased by 30 yuan / bottle, the dynamic sales deposit remained unchanged, and the recommended retail price of the terminal was adjusted to 819 yuan / bottle; The ex factory price of 52% vol smart shede (Collection) is increased by 50 yuan / bottle, the dynamic sales margin remains unchanged, and the recommended retail price of the terminal is adjusted to 1199 yuan / bottle. The company complies with the trend to raise prices and realize the improvement of brand value.
21 years ended smoothly and maintained the "recommended" rating. The company successfully concluded its 21 years, and achieved remarkable results in channel strategy. The famous high-end Baijiu liquor brand with the concept of old wine and sauce wine was successfully built. In the 22 year, it is expected to continue to enjoy the bonus of the high-end and old liquor expansion. However, considering that the epidemic situation is repeated and the banquet scene may be impacted, we adjusted the profit expectation. The EPS forecast for 2021-2023 is 3.85, 5.74 and 7.58 (the original forecast for 21-23 is 4.26, 6.29 and 8.90 yuan), maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk hint: 1) Baijiu industry downturn risk. Baijiu industry boom and price trend is highly correlated, if Baijiu prices decline, may cause the enterprise revenue growth slowed sharply. 2) The change of management is likely to lead to business fluctuation risk. Baijiu enterprises are influenced by business strategies, such as changing management level, which may lead to a sharp fluctuation in revenues and profits. 3) Policy risk. Baijiu industry demand and tax rate are greatly influenced by policies, such as changes in relevant policies, which may have a greater impact on the company's revenues and profits.
