Looking back on Tuesday's A-share market, the opening of Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fluctuated, and the pattern of strong Shanghai and weak Shenzhen was obvious. With the rise of big finance, the Shanghai index rose, and then the Chinese prefix, resource stocks and other targets continued to exert force, boosting the performance of the Shanghai index again; However, a number of high-level stocks fell sharply, which dragged down the index. The gem fluctuated downward and accelerated the decline in the afternoon.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , at present, there is a certain index market in the market. While the index continues to rebound, the overall profit-making effect has not rebounded. In the early stage, the main line of the market is dead and there is no benchmark sector with strong performance for the time being. In terms of operation, investors can maintain the wait-and-see strategy at this stage, choose low and medium positions to participate in the rotation of market hot spots, and pay attention to the undervalued sector .
Guosheng Securities pointed out that after experiencing a wide range of shocks in the short term, the two cities' indexes rebounded continuously on Monday and Tuesday, and the panic decline stage of the index may have ended. In the near future, will gradually build a shock central structure, which is conducive to the recovery of market sentiment or welcome long opportunities .
In terms of operation, the further analysis shows that the market sentiment is gradually stable. After superimposing the previous trend, the selling tide of the track sector is coming to an end, and the index is expected to shake and stabilize the structure. At the same time, the continuous disclosure of the company's annual report may bring new expectations to the market and make the capital re make the valuation model for the high boom sector. Therefore, We can focus on stocks in lithium battery, photovoltaic, military industry and other sectors whose performance exceeds expectations and there is a possibility of wrong killing.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan securities mentioned that on Tuesday, the Shanghai index continued to rebound, and the index closed two consecutive positive, breaking through the semi annual line. The volume of the two cities can expand slightly, and the north capital has been net inflow for three consecutive days. The central bank carried out RMB 100 billion reverse repurchase for two consecutive days to protect the liquidity at the end of the year. With the gradual implementation of the steady growth policy, the market is expected to stabilize and strengthen, pay attention to the gains and losses of the annual line and the rotation of the sector . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, household appliances, building materials, building decoration, TMT and other industries.
In terms of the future market, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) said that there are large differences between long and short in the market, the annual line of the Shanghai index may still be contested, and the main tone of "shock stabilization" as a whole remains unchanged . At the operational level, it is recommended to see more and move less, and pay attention to the low absorption opportunities of medium linear growth varieties. In terms of industry, the middle line can continue to pay attention to the industries of national defense, military industry, electronics and securities companies, and look for investment opportunities in the science and technology sector (electronics, communications and computers) in the short term.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that the market is in the stage of consolidation and bottom building, the repair of emotions takes time, and the adjustment of some sectors has not ended yet. Therefore, it is inevitable that the index will differentiate at different positions . Popularity at the bottom stage will recover, but to return to the excited state, we need to wait for the landing of peripheral boots and the re cohesion of market consensus.
In addition, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that due to the frequent conversion of leading hot spots in the near future, poor profit-making effect and heavy wait-and-see mentality of OTC funds, it is expected that the Shanghai index is more likely to sort out slightly around the annual line in the short term . Investors are advised to be cautious about investment opportunities in engineering construction, electric power, Internet, automobile and other industries in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Macroscopically, Wanlian Securities believes that since 2022, in the market where the liquidity of A-Shares is less than expected and there is no main line, the market sentiment has remained depressed. Combined with the recent sharp rise in US bond yields and the spread of epidemic in China, A-Shares have shown a downward trend.
It is worth noting that, first, "steady growth" and "wide credit" series policies are expected to continue , and the market's pessimistic expectation of enterprise profits is expected to gradually ease. Recently, the pace of issuance of special bonds and the pace of examination and approval of infrastructure projects have accelerated, and the landscape of infrastructure industry chain continues to pick up.
Second, A-share liquidity environment is improving . On January 17, the people's Bank of China simultaneously lowered the MLF and reverse repo interest rates by 10 BP in anticipation of the Fed's interest rate hike, reflecting the idea that monetary policy is dominated by China. The policy focus remains the same in the direction of steady growth, cost reduction and structural adjustment. Further monetary easing will improve the liquidity environment of Panasonic A-share market, which may boost investor sentiment and benefit the undervalued financial sector.
Third, the two sessions have been held one after another, which will strengthen the market's expectation of stable growth . At the same time, with the determination of policy ideas, the relevant industrial support policies are expected to provide the main idea of configuration for the market, and the industries supported by policies deserve close tracking and attention. It is expected that there will be a round of rebound in short-term A shares,
In terms of industry allocation, the organization further pointed out that 1) industry allocation opportunities with annual performance forecast exceeding expectations can be explored in the near future; 2) Under the favorable interest rate cut, continue to pay attention to the undervalued banks and securities companies; 3) The logic of "steady growth" remains unchanged. Under the goal of carbon neutralization, green infrastructure in infrastructure is expected to accelerate the expansion, and UHV, 5g and other fields also deserve continuous attention .
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) put forward configuration suggestions: 1) areas potentially supported by marginal change or force of policy, including industrial chains related to stable demand of infrastructure and real estate (construction, building materials, household appliances, home furnishings, real estate, etc.), potential areas of consumption support, securities companies , etc.
2) for the middle and lower reaches consumption that has been adjusted this year, the valuation is not high, and the medium and long-term prospects are still clear, choose stocks from the bottom up, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, Internet and media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, medicine, aviation and hotels .
3) the short-term share prices of the manufacturing growth sector with a large increase last year may be suppressed, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors . The potential turnaround depends on the change of market style again. The potential time point may be at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter.
