According to the statistics of the times weekly, up to now, four A-share listed securities companies have released the performance forecast of 2021.
On January 15, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) (601456. SH) announced that it is expected to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of RMB 880 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 49.72%, and a deduction of non net profit of RMB 882 million, with a year-on-year increase of about 51.27%.
In contrast, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) (601375. SH) has the fastest profit growth. It is expected that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will increase by 436.90% year-on-year in 2021; According to the performance express of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (600030. SH), the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company increased by 54.2% year-on-year; Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) (601878. SH) expects the net profit to increase by 30% – 40% year-on-year.
The reasons for the growth of employment performance are summarized as follows: the activity of China’s capital market has increased, and the company has grasped the market opportunity to realize the steady development of various businesses.
At the same time, the reporter of times weekly noted that some seller organizations predicted that the performance of listed securities companies such as China stock market news (300059. SZ), Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) (600958. SH) will also achieve good growth in 2021.
However, despite the good results, the performance of securities companies’ stocks in the secondary market has been relatively low since the new year. As of the closing on January 17, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) was reported at 25.67 yuan / share, down 2.8% during the year, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) fell 1.57%, and Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) fell 4.86%, only Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) rose 1.83%.
“This is only a short-term fluctuation. It is suggested to pay attention to the repair opportunities of undervalued sectors such as securities companies.” Zhang Qiyao, chief strategist of China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) told the weekly times that the central economic work conference proposed to “fully implement the stock issuance registration system”, which is expected to support the long-term performance of securities companies. At the same time, the current market is highly active, and the transaction volume continues to be maintained at more than trillion yuan. With the continuous interpretation of the market, as a sector with strong linkage with the market, the beta attribute of securities companies will also be fully interpreted and released.
the overall performance shows a trend of pre increase
Specifically, the “report card” of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) leading securities companies is quite bright. In 2021, the operating revenue was 76.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.80%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company was 22.979 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.20%. “Investment banking, asset management and other businesses will develop in a balanced and steady manner in 2021.” Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said.
The reporter of times weekly noted that Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) launched the “fortune number” last week to promote the wealth management business, inviting funds and securities companies to settle in. At present, it has attracted the first batch of more than 10 head fund companies such as Huaxia, gf and Nanfang.
” Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) fortune number is different from ordinary Internet institutions and bank fortune numbers”. According to Guangfa fund, it is not simply to provide product promotion and advertising pages for fund companies in app, but to give full play to the advantages of resource database and platform integration and establish ecological links for customers.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) can be called a performance “dark horse” of the securities industry in 2021. According to its recent announcement, the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 will increase by 376 million yuan to 456 million yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year increase of 360.2% to 436.9%. In 2020, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) realized a net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company of 104 million yuan. According to this calculation, the net profit in Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) 2021 is expected to reach 480 million yuan to 560 million yuan.
The performance of Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) and Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) is also commendable. Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company will be RMB 880 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 49.72%.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 will increase by 488 million yuan to 651 million yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30% to 40%. In 2020, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) realized a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 1.627 billion yuan. According to this calculation, the net profit in Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) 2021 can reach 2.115 billion yuan to 2.278 billion yuan.
It is worth mentioning that on the day of disclosing the performance forecast, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) announced that the wholly-owned subsidiary Zheshang asset management was suspended from the filing of private asset management products for six months for five reasons, and the company was ordered to make corrections and punish relevant personnel.
For the impact that the suspension of the filing of a wholly-owned subsidiary may have on the operating performance of Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) , Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) responded that “the suspension of the filing of private asset management products has little impact on the consolidated income and profit of the company and will not affect the normal operation of Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) .”
undervalued value attracts huge capital to increase positions
At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the reporter of the times weekly found that many seller institutions have predicted the commercial performance of A-share bonds.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) in the Research Report of investment strategy of securities companies in 2022: Mo Dao’s spring evening, warm wind is just the time, it is said that thanks to the continuous rise of net profit margin, the roe of securities companies has increased from 3.56% in 2018 to 7.82% in the first half of 2021 (annualized data). The roe of head securities companies is more than 10% on average. Looking forward to the improvement of capital market activity in the future, the performance of securities companies is expected to maintain a high growth. Under neutral assumptions, it is predicted that the operating revenue and net profit of the securities industry will achieve a positive growth of 8% – 12% in 2022, and the industry roe is expected to be more than 7.9%.
In terms of cases, for China stock market news (300059. SZ), a leading retail brokerage with “flow accumulation”, non bank analysts predict that the net profit in 2021 will be 8.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.1%; Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) 2021 will be 5.691 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109%.
One side is the beautiful and greatly increased performance, and the other is the depressed stock price. As of January 14, the latest valuation of the securities sector was 1.69 times Pb, which shows that there is a large contrast between the fundamentals, policies and the valuation of the sector. The profit of securities companies continues to reach a new high, and the relative roe is close to the level of the previous bull market (2015-2016), but its valuation is still at the bottom quarter of the historical valuation, and the long-term and short-term allocation value of securities companies is continuously highlighting.
The continuous upward roe corresponds to the Pb valuation lower than the historical center and little change in recent years. This mismatch has attracted a huge influx of funds. On January 14, the wind vane of A-share market and ten billion ETF – securities firm ETF (512000) fell by 2.66% in a single day. On that day, it received a net subscription of more than 660 million yuan. It has received a net subscription of funds for 10 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative net subscription of more than 2.48 billion yuan.
At the same time, star investors are also adding positions to securities companies with “real gold and silver”. According to the information disclosed by the Hong Kong stock exchange, Yang Dong’s 10 billion private equity ningquan assets at the helm recently increased their holdings of brokerage shares again. On January 4, they increased their holdings of Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) 3 million H shares at a cost of about HK $4.256 million. After the increase, ningquan asset has accumulated more than 146 million Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) H shares as an “investment manager”, accounting for 3.15% of the latter’s total share capital, with a market value of about HK $220 million.
For the investment of securities companies, Wang Fujie, fund manager of shenwanlingxin Fund Index Investment Department, analyzed that according to the previous revenue and business model of the securities industry, including the corresponding stock nature, the profit and stock price fluctuate greatly before 2019, and better investment return can be obtained at the right time.
“After 2019, the business model of the whole industry, including the profit structure and the beta of stock price, is going down. When the volatility decreases and the prosperity of the industry continues to improve, we see the strengthening of growth attributes.” Wang Jianjie believes that at present, the valuation of the securities industry is in a relatively cheap position. If it is held for a long time, it may have a greater chance of winning.
