Under the influence and stimulation of the high ups and downs of the overseas market, the large-scale net inflow of funds in the North exceeding 2.3 billion yuan, the decline limit tide of pharmaceutical stocks, the differentiation after the general rise of digital economy stocks, the strong rebound of cyclical stocks, and the continuous rise of more than half of the industry segmentation indexes, the stock indexes of Shenzhen and Shanghai have formed the closing trend of ups and downs, which is the demand for digesting the resistance of the moving average in a small cycle, It is also an appeal to speed up the risk clearing time for stocks with too high premium. The index volatility may be small, but the volatility of sectors and individual stocks will be relatively large.
In terms of the Shanghai stock index, the 3500 point area at the end of the three waves gives an upward attack positive line for two consecutive days, which is caused by the growth and periodic rotation. For example, the medium-term moving average fails to achieve resistance change support, or there is a demand for a second bottom; The gem index adjusted the negative line in a large amount, digested the 250 day line, and the volatility did not break the strong support of 3100 points. It was clear that the long and short game at the end of the five waves or the golden fork at the bottom of the MACD index continued to rise in shock under the immediate stimulation of the golden fork at the bottom of the MACD index; In combination with the operation of Kechuang 50 index, which has received a slightly large amount of cross star concussion line, the MACD index has been formed, the Shenzhen Component Index has rushed up the concussion line in large amount, or there is a double bottom, it is expected that the more fully adjusted the fierce long short game in the countdown to the Spring Festival holiday, the more favorable it will be to close before the year. In terms of Pankou, construction, water conservancy construction, coal, property management, digital twins, rent and purchase rights, shipping concept, UHV, wind energy, petroleum, transportation services, daily chemical industry and other sectors led the rise, with large-scale net capital inflow and an average volatility of more than 2%, which constituted a strong positive leading and driving force for the index.
However, Helicobacter pylori, covid-19 drug concept, covid-19 detection, cloud games, intellectual property rights, aquatic products and other sectors led the decline, with an average volatility of more than 2.5%, which was a drag on the index. Combined with the long short energy ratio, 59 stocks rose by more than 9%, 131 stocks rose by more than 5%, 260 stocks rose by more than 3%, 67 stocks fell by more than 9%, 416 stocks fell by more than 5%, and 1116 stocks fell by more than 3%. It is expected that the long short game of extreme rise and fall will not affect and reverse the “red envelope” market that maintained stability years ago.
In terms of news, the national top-level design emphasizes that achieving carbon peak and carbon neutralization is not only the internal requirement of China’s high-quality development, but also China’s solemn commitment to the international community; China will abide by its commitments and make firm progress. It has issued the action plan for reaching the carbon peak by 2030, and will successively release specific implementation plans in energy, industry, construction and other fields; China has built the world’s largest carbon market and clean power generation system, with an installed capacity of more than 1 billion kw of renewable energy, and the construction of 100 million KW large-scale wind power photovoltaic base has been started in an orderly manner; It is impossible to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutralization in one battle. In the future, we will break through and develop simultaneously, steadily and steadily, gradually and orderly reduce traditional energy in the process of promoting reliable substitution of new energy, so as to ensure stable economic and social development. The national development and Reform Commission stressed that the construction schemes of four nodes, namely, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Bay area and Chengdu Chongqing, should be thoroughly demonstrated to serve the needs of the implementation of major regional development strategies; Continue to promote the construction of traditional infrastructure such as transportation, energy, water conservancy, agriculture, environmental protection and logistics, strengthen the construction of new infrastructure such as 5g, data center and industrial Internet, and promote the digital transformation of traditional infrastructure; Accelerate the construction of affordable housing, pay close attention to the transformation and construction of urban pipelines, comprehensively promote the treatment of urban waterlogging, and strengthen the construction of “one old and one small”, education, medical treatment, culture and sports and other areas of social and people’s livelihood; Ensure the continuous and stable supply of natural gas. This year, we will promote the signing of separate gas contracts for people’s livelihood, so as to make the guarantee of people’s livelihood gas more solid and in place; Increase support for private enterprises, especially small and micro enterprises, and strive to solve the typical problems of private enterprises in the fields of property right protection, bidding, market access and financing support; Improve the implementation mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national strategies, formulate policies and measures to support private enterprises to participate in rural revitalization, and guide private enterprises to participate in the mixed ownership reform of incremental state-owned enterprises; Strengthen anti-monopoly and anti unfair competition, continue to explore and innovate, and continue to create replicable and replicable experience and practices; Accelerate the construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects focusing on desert Gobi desert areas, and make every effort to improve the supply guarantee capacity; Carry out infrastructure investment appropriately in advance, accelerate the promotion of 102 major projects in the 14th five year plan, and implement the special bonds issued by local governments in the fourth quarter of last year into specific projects as soon as possible in accordance with the requirements of “funds follow projects”; We should appropriately move forward the starting point of policies, make early arrangements, start early and achieve early results, and meet various challenges with a stable economic operation situation; Continuously improve the system and policy system for promoting common prosperity, increase residents’ income and reduce burden at the same time, innovate the mechanism of mutual promotion and progress in the virtuous cycle of the whole chain of employment, income distribution and consumption, and support the continuous expansion of consumption with the general growth of urban and rural residents’ income; Encourage green consumption to lead green production, vigorously improve the comprehensive level of e-commerce and express delivery into rural areas and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) circulation modernization, and improve the county and rural three-level e-commerce service system and express logistics distribution system; Improve the foresight, pertinence and effectiveness of macro policies, grasp the rhythm, strength and focus of policies, strengthen overall policy coordination, and form a joint force for steady growth; Strengthen the coordination and linkage between fiscal, monetary, employment and industrial, investment, consumption, regional, environmental protection, reform and other policies, and speed up the introduction of a series of measures to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand; Strengthen the operation management of coal-fired and gas-fired units, improve the peak capacity, increase the power generation output of new energy through multiple channels, and clarify the grand strategic goal of stable growth in 2022. It is also conducive to the capital market to form a joint force to serve the real economy.
The author believes that the CSRC emphasizes “steady growth”, actively integrates into the major national development strategies, studies and issues more policies and measures conducive to steady growth and stable expectations, guides listed companies to focus on the main business, become better and stronger, and give better play to the “barometer” function of the capital market; The Ministry of education has made great efforts to develop vocational education to meet the needs of new technology and industrial reform, promote talent training and serve the strategy of strengthening the country with talents in the new era, and take positive measures conducive to the stable operation of the capital market and the good operation of scientific and technological innovation in the medium term. Considering that Shanghai will promote the “troika” of intelligent equipment, intelligent networked vehicles and intelligent Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , and further deepen the integration of emerging technologies such as 5g, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet and big data with high-end equipment, Shanghai will formulate the action plan for the development of intelligent networked vehicle terminal industry to accelerate the development of energy security and low-carbon, Implement several policies for the development of fuel cell vehicle industry, promote the planning and construction of hydrogen stations in the city, step up the research and layout of future virtual world and real society interaction platforms, actively layout “new infrastructure” projects represented by new networks, new facilities, new platforms and new terminals, and accelerate the construction of “3 + 6” new industrial system; Wuhan issued the opinions on promoting the innovative development of the semiconductor industry to vigorously promote the accelerated development of enterprises such as chips, third-generation semiconductors, equipment and materials, packaging and testing, and other regional economic policies. The digital economy fields expected to benefit from the core include semiconductors, components, lithography machines, MCU chips, new materials, data centers, industrial motherboards, 5g, artificial intelligence Internet of things, quantum technology, aviation, metauniverse, communication equipment, new energy vehicles, it equipment, UHV, industrial Internet, etc. the probability will continue to maintain stability and rise, deducting the main rising market of shock and rise. (Note: the above information is for reference only and is not used as specific operation suggestions. There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious.)
Author: Zhang Cuixia, chief investment adviser of Jufeng investment
Attachment: daily analysis diagram of different indexes
(daily analysis diagram of Shanghai stock index 2022-1-18)
(daily analysis diagram of gem index 2022-1-18)
