Since the second half of 2021, the break of large-scale new shares has continued to this day. In the past month and a half, the breaking rate of new shares has remained high.
The data show that since December 2021, a total of 60 new shares have been listed in the A-share market, including 52 new shares under the registration system, 10 of which broke on the first day of listing, and the breaking rate on the first day is close to 20%. At the same time, although there are three new shares that did not break on the first day, the stock price continued to decline, and they have broken as of the closing on the evening of January 17.
Among them, 4 new shares have been issued on the first day of 2022, accounting for 1 / 3 of the issuing enterprises under the registration system since this year.
“For the breaking of new shares this year, our judgment is that the market situation and pricing mechanism affect each other half. From the breaking of new shares, the industry sectors are distributed in medicine, computer, chemical industry and other industries, as well as new shares on the science and innovation board. From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, these industry sectors have not performed very well, which will also have a negative impact on the listing of relevant new shares.” Yang Ruyi, partner of Chunshi group and head of kuwang investment securities master fund, said.
Yang Ruyi pointed out that the valuation of broken new shares is generally high, “In addition to the fact that the new shares on the science and innovation board have not yet achieved profitability, the valuation of the new shares listed on the main board has exceeded the industry average p / E ratio. The new regulations on the inquiry of the two registration sectors of science and innovation and entrepreneurship released in September last year encourage institutions to quote according to reasonable value without deliberately reducing the quotation. As a result, the median valuation of new shares has increased significantly, which has also led to a breaking tide.”
several institutions clearing new products offline
Since 2022, the breaking of new shares has erupted intensively again.
On January 14, the offering price of Aojie technology was 164.54 yuan, which fell by 20.99% on the first day of listing, and then continued to decline, with the largest decline reaching 35.65%. As of the close, Aojie technology closed at 109 yuan, down 33.75%.
Previously, Yahong medicine-u and Weike technology broke on the first day of listing, causing a great shock in the market.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that with the rising tide of new shares, the new funds of many institutions have been liquidated and closed.
A person in charge of a private placement institution in South China confirmed to reporters that it has successively liquidated new products offline, and some new shares are not subscribed.
“It can be predicted that during the tightening cycle, it will be difficult to sell in the next six months. This will also drive the transformation of fixed income + products. At present, only some Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets meet the requirements of playing new active management products and will continue to apply for some new shares.” The person in charge said.
Yang Ruyi also revealed to reporters that recently, some institutions have liquidated their positions and opened new funds, and the funds have been returned to investors. While still playing new funds, they became cautious and began to give up new shares with poor asset quality, profitability and poor future prospects.
“Recently, in the case of obvious decline or even negative return of new products, the impact of new products is not small, and new funds are rapidly withdrawing from the market. Previously, the new strategy belongs to the strategy of steady profit without loss, and investors belong to the group with low risk preference. Now the Fundamentals of the new strategy have changed, and the investor group will be adjusted.” Yang Ruyi said.
“At present, most of the institutions involved in offline new share pricing hold some stock market value. Innovation is only an auxiliary enhancement and has a limited impact on them. However, if the products themselves rush to take innovation as a fixed income strategy to attract funds, such products will be greatly affected.” Another senior private placement person interviewed pointed out.
Industry insiders believe that the “fixed income +” products focusing on innovation will also face transformation in the future, but the specific transformation direction depends on the organization.
\u3000\u3000 “Based on different expectations in different fields and different judgments on various assets, it is difficult to generalize the direction of transformation, because now it is difficult to find a pure new fixed income strategy with low risk and high yield in the market. Whether it is quantitative hedging or arbitrage, there will be deviation. If you buy bonds, you may think that the yield of credit bonds is higher than that of interest rate bonds, but the credit risk is higher The risk of using debt is also very high, so the market can only gradually adjust its expectations. ” The aforementioned senior private placement agency pointed out.
Lin Jiayi, CEO of Xuanjia finance, also pointed out to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter: “At present, these fixed income + products can rarely be transferred to neutral or neutral + new products, because it is difficult to cover hedging costs. Therefore, more should be temporarily transferred to fixed income products such as wealth management and bonds, with a small part flowing into active equity and index enhancement. CTA and options also have a small part of funds to choose, but the capacity is too small.”
new market in the era of comprehensive registration system
It is worth mentioning that the China Securities Regulatory Commission recently held a 2022 system work conference, which stressed the need to comprehensively implement the stock issuance registration system as the main line and further promote the reform of the capital market.
Industry insiders expect that with the arrival of the comprehensive registration system, new “variables” will be added to the new market in the future.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) that is, it is pointed out in the research report, “it is expected that after the reform of the main board registration system, the new revenue will also increase, but the increase is not as obvious as that of the gem registration system reform. On the overall trend, referring to the empirical data of the gem registration system reform, it is expected that the new revenue will increase after the reform of the main board registration system.”
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that in terms of the improvement range, considering that the main board listed enterprises are relatively more mature and the elasticity of issuance rhythm growth may be slightly low, and the listing increase of new shares under the registration system has decreased significantly after the “new inquiry regulations”, it is expected that after the registration system reform, the increase range of new income on the main board is not as obvious as that of the gem registration system reform.
The aforementioned senior private equity institutions also pointed out: “The promotion of the comprehensive registration system will first bring about an increase in the scale of financing and an increase in the subject matter of new shares, because about 1 / 3 of the new shares will change from the approval system to the registration system, which is equivalent to an increase of 1 / 3 of the overall volume. It is impossible for all the new shares of this 1 / 3 volume to have negative returns, so the overall income will certainly increase, but it is difficult to raise the new rate of return due to the impact of the new inquiry rules.”
\u3000\u3000 “With the breaking of new shares, the participation of follow-up institutions in the pricing of new shares will move down the pricing center again, so as to make more room for speculation after IPO. The speculation after IPO is highly positively related to the market heat, which is directly related to the loss of profit-making effect under the credit crunch. In the future, it will be a repeated game of the above factors, but the new income is expected offline It fell to the risk-free return level throughout the year. ” Lin Jiayi said.
A senior industry person who declined to be named also told reporters: “In fact, for many fund companies, the issuance of new shares is very large, and many people can’t see it at all. They don’t have an in-depth understanding of many enterprises, but make a hasty quotation according to the reports provided by securities companies. At present, the 23 times issuance P / E ratio of the main board can still enable these new institutions to maintain low risk and high return, but with the implementation of the comprehensive registration system in the future, this part will (risk-free) returns will be compressed. “
