The central bank lowered the MLF and reverse repo interest rates by 10 basis points: the central bank announced that in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, it carried out 700 billion yuan one-year MLF operation and 100 billion yuan seven-day open market reverse repo operation on January 17. The bid winning interest rates were 2.85% and 2.10% respectively, and the bid winning interest rates decreased by 10 basis points. This is the first time that the central bank has lowered the MLF interest rate since April 15, 2020. It is only one month since the RRR reduction in December 2021. We expect that the approximate LPR quotation rate will decrease by 10 BPS on the 20th of this month, which will help to promote the steady decline of the financing cost of the real economy. In addition, we believe that the expected reduction of LPR will also play a strong guiding role in the decline of risk-free return, and then infer from the stock price pricing model that the discount rate at the denominator end has fallen. Obviously, the growth style is more sensitive to the underlying stock price than the stable style. Therefore, we believe that the expected reduction of LPR, It will become one of the main logics for a stronger recovery of growth style at this stage.
The valuation fell significantly and the spatial advantage opened: as of last Friday, taking SSE 50 and chuang50 as examples, the maximum adjustment range since the beginning of the year was 4.65%, while the maximum adjustment range of chuang50 was 10.21%. If we distinguish by style, based on the valuation quantile of CITIC growth and CITIC stability in the past year, CITIC growth is currently at the valuation quantile of 8.34% in the past year, while CITIC stability is at the valuation quantile of 85% in the past year. In comparison, the relative valuation quantile advantage of growth stocks has been highlighted, and the profit of the two styles is estimated from 2021, The growth rate of parent return profit of CITIC growth style is significantly better than that of stable style, which means that under the background of the advantage of valuation space, once the A-share rebound is repaired, it is obviously more dominant for the subject of growth style, which is the second more dominant logic of growth style recovery.
With the dual support of "economic environment + liquidity", the adjustment of A-Shares is difficult to sustain: according to preliminary accounting, China's GDP in the whole year was 114367 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1% over the previous year and an average increase of 5.1% in the two years at constant prices. In terms of quarters, it increased by 18.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, 7.9% in the second quarter, 4.9% in the third quarter and 4.0% in the fourth quarter. By industry, the added value of the primary industry was 83086.6 billion yuan, an increase of 7.1% over the previous year; The added value of the secondary industry was 450.904 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2%; The added value of the tertiary industry was 60968 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2%. The growth rate of 4.0% in the fourth quarter is obviously higher than the market consensus expectation. Therefore, at present, the economic environment operates well and supports the profit expectation of a shares. From the perspective of liquidity, the net inflow of funds from northbound is 7.5 billion yuan; The net inflow of financing funds in the first four trading days was 2.54 billion yuan; The newly established partial stock public funds rebounded to 12.7 billion yuan; The net inflow of ETF was RMB 17.3 billion. In December, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock further rebounded slightly to 10.3% from 10.1% in November. The pace of stabilizing credit continued to advance. M2 increased by 9% year-on-year and M1 increased by 3.5% year-on-year, 0.5 points higher than that in November. The monetary environment of M2 is also at a high growth rate during the year. The recovery of M1 growth rate and the increase of demand funds contribute to the enhancement of the expectation of variable liquidity of A-Shares in the future. To sum up, we believe that the A-share adjustment is not sustainable, and the stabilization of the market will be the key to the first recovery of growth style.
Allocation ideas: 1. Under the expectation of stable growth policy (smart water conservancy and UHV); 2. "Double carbon wide credit" + strong science and technology theme (wind power, photovoltaic, new energy vehicles - parts, lithium upstream resources, rare earth permanent magnet, UHV, semiconductor); 3. Dilemma reversal expectation (agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage)
Risk tip: Sino US trade friction has intensified and the epidemic has not been effectively controlled
