The most fundamental reason for the strong export in December is the high demand for durable goods in the EU (mainly mechanical and electrical products), which is reflected in the high European shipping index of CCFI. The epidemic broke out again in European and American countries, and the consumer demand for durable goods in the United States also increased slightly year-on-year recently. The demand is strong. However, due to the blockade of the epidemic, the production and transportation of the production side are blocked, and the labor market is impacted (the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States has increased). The production supply chain problem is highlighted again, and the supply is in short supply. Recently, the overall shipping price has also increased slightly again, supporting the high export level of 20.9% in December.
In terms of export product categories, mechanical and electrical products still supported the high growth of China's exports in December. The high growth in the export of mechanical and electrical products is due to the repeated impact of the epidemic: the shortage of production, transportation and labor, resulting in insufficient production supply; On the demand side, on the one hand, due to the epidemic situation, the transportation and supply of raw materials and midstream processed products required by enterprises are not timely, which hinders some manufacturing production and may need to be imported from China for substitution (such as mechanical and electrical products); On the other hand, due to the inconvenient travel of residents in the epidemic situation, the demand for services decreased, and the consumption demand for durable goods such as durable goods increased briefly, resulting in the growth of consumption demand for durable goods such as mechanical and electrical products, which needs to be imported from China. From the perspective of consumer demand for major durable goods, at present, the consumption of durable goods in the EU still maintains a very strong high growth. In the early stage of the epidemic in the United States, the consumption of durable goods has slowed down year-on-year, and the demand for services has increased. However, the recent epidemic has been repeated, and the demand for overall durable goods has increased marginally.
China's exports to the EU increased by 25.65% year-on-year in December, followed by the United States and ASEAN. The epidemic situation in Europe is repeated, and the production and transportation of various channels are seriously hindered. A large number of goods are not usually overstocked in the port, causing serious obstacles to the production end. Coupled with the active repair and strong demand of European countries, the demand for durable goods remained at a high level year-on-year. The soaring shipping index displayed by CCFI also showed that China's production supply in Europe was seriously insufficient and needed to be imported from overseas, driving the overall export amount of China in December. Calculated from the export data of the General Administration of customs, the exports of the EU, the United States, ASEAN and Japan increased by 25.65%, 21.21%, 12.00% and 8.56% respectively year-on-year.
In terms of import, coal has been subject to the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price, and the price has fallen significantly; Driven by strong demand for clean energy in Europe, the price of natural gas is still high; The global crude oil inventory is low and the price is also at a high level. From January to December 2021, China's total amount of imported iron ore and its concentrate increased by 49.3% year-on-year; The import amount of copper ore increased by 55.6% over the same period in 2020; The import amount of coal and lignite increased by 76.9% year-on-year; The import amount of crude oil increased by 44.2% over the same period in 2020; The import amount of refined oil increased by 41.3% year-on-year; The import amount of natural gas increased by 67.6% over the same period in 2020; The amount of steel imports increased by 11.3% year-on-year.
Risk factors: the global epidemic exceeded expectations, and China US trade policy exceeded expectations.
