Ping An View:
Macro events with high attention in overseas markets this week: 1) fed chairman Powell spoke at the hearing of the US Congress. In his speech prepared for Tuesday's congressional hearing, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell promised to "prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched". However, when talking about the contents of interest rate hike and table contraction, Powell only said that he needed to be "more flexible" and did not disclose more information. 2) The ECB Executive Committee said that if energy prices continue to rise, the ECB may need to take action. European central bank executive Schnabel said on Saturday that rising energy prices may force the European Central Bank to stop "ignoring" high inflation and take action to curb price increases, especially if the green transformation is proved to trigger inflation. 3) The World Bank expects global growth to slow down this year and next, reducing the GDP growth of the United States and China to 3.7% and 5.1% respectively in 2022. It warned that high debt, increased income inequality and the new covid-19 virus variant may pose a threat to the recovery of developed economies.
Overseas economic tracking: 1) US economy: CPI hit a new high year-on-year and the growth rate slowed down month on month. In December 2021, US CPI continued to rise to 7.0% year-on-year, reaching the highest value since June 1982, but the month on month growth rate fell slightly to 0.5%, and PPI also fell slightly year-on-year. Under the influence of higher inflation, the total retail sales in the United States fell sharply by 1.91% month on month. 2) European economy: unemployment continues to decline and employment improves slowly. By December 2021, the unemployment rate in the euro area had continued to decrease by 0.1% to 7.2%, and the number of unemployed had also decreased to 11.83 million. However, the structural problem of employment in Europe is still prominent, and the unemployment rate gap between different ages and countries is obvious. 3) Overseas epidemic: the growth rate of developing countries rebounded. The growth rate of newly confirmed cases in developed countries remains high, and the growth rate in the United States, France, Germany and other countries even continues to increase. In addition, the current round of epidemic also began to spread to developing countries. The growth rate of newly confirmed cases in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, India, Colombia and other countries rebounded significantly.
Global Asset Performance: the performance of the stock market and the global stock market was divided. The three major indexes of US stocks and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index closed down, and the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng technology index continued to rebound. Emerging markets are relatively warmer, but they still face some capital outflow pressure. In the bond market, the US bond yield curve flattened again. The yield of 10-year US bonds rose slightly by 2bp to 1.78%, while the yield of 2-year US bonds rose by 12bp to 0.99%. In terms of splitting the 10-year US bonds, the implied inflation expectation decreased by 4bp to 2.44%, while the real interest rate continued to rise by 6BP to - 0.66%, reaching the highest value since mid April 2021. For bulk commodities, the CRB index rose by 3.2% throughout the week, the price of crude oil accelerated, the prices of precious metals and base metals also strengthened slightly, and the price trend of black commodities and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) was divided. The actual supply and demand still dominate the trend of the crude oil market, but there are still great variables in the future crude oil price trend. As for the exchange rate, the US dollar index continued to fall, falling 0.60% to 95.16 throughout the week, and the pound and euro strengthened significantly. In addition to the reasons why the non-agricultural data were lower than expected last week, the continued upward inflation and weak consumption also had a certain impact on market confidence.
Risk tip: the overseas epidemic has intensified again, the overseas inflation is more persistent than expected, and the geopolitical conflict has escalated.
