Report summary
On January 16, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) raised the quotation of silicon wafers on the official website: compared with the quotation on December 16, 158, 166 and 182mm silicon wafers increased by 0.12 yuan, 0.12 yuan and 0.3 yuan / piece respectively, and the quotations were 4.95 yuan, 5.15 yuan and 6.15 yuan / piece respectively, with increases of 2.5%, 2.4% and 5.1% respectively. Taking the mainstream 182 silicon wafer as an example, according to our calculation, Longji’s current quotation is expected to increase the gross profit margin of silicon wafer by about 3-5 percentage points. The price increase of silicon wafers is the first time that Longji has raised the price of silicon wafers since November 21. We judge that the main reasons are as follows: 1) the demand for components was strong in the first quarter, the inventory of silicon wafer manufacturers accelerated in the early stage, and the operating rate of components and silicon wafer manufacturers continued to increase; 2) The demand for silicon materials is increasing. Silicon wafer enterprises have a demand for hoarding goods before the Spring Festival. The new release of silicon materials is relatively limited. The price of silicon materials has also stabilized and rebounded, and silicon wafers rise together with the price of silicon materials; 3) On January 8, a 6.9-magnitude earthquake occurred in Menyuan County, Haibei Prefecture, Qinghai Province, which delayed the transportation of silicon materials and shut down the maintenance of equipment. It is expected to reduce the supply of 0.8-1gw silicon wafers, resulting in a shortage of short-term supply. It is expected that the price of silicon wafers will still rise in the future.
1) silicon material: the average transaction price of silicon material this week was flat month on month, maintaining at 230 yuan / kg. As the Spring Festival approaches, silicon wafer manufacturers raise the opening rate, and the demand for silicon material increases month on month, which forms a certain support for the price of silicon material. The high price range of silicon material spot quotation has been corrected and rebounded to RMB 232-240 per kilogram. The statistics of silicon industry branch also show that the price of silicon material has increased month on month. In December 2021, the installed capacity of grid connection is expected to reach 25gw. Considering the situation that some of them are connected to the grid first and then installed, combined with the strong overseas demand in Europe, India and Japan, Q1 is expected to form a situation of not light off-season in 2022, and the short-term silicon price is expected to stabilize at about 230 yuan / kg, but it is not ruled out that it may continue to rise.
2) silicon wafer: the average price of single crystal M6 / M10 / G12 silicon wafer is about 4.95, 5.85 and 7.70 yuan / wafer, and the ring ratio of 182 size silicon wafer increases by 0.8%. Due to the recent increase in demand, the gradual recovery of downstream operating rate and the de inventory of silicon wafers in the early stage, the price of silicon wafers stopped falling and stabilized, and the price of 182 rose for two consecutive weeks this week. On January 8, an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.9 occurred in Menyuan County, Haibei Prefecture, Qinghai Province, which delayed the transportation of silicon materials and shut down the maintenance of equipment. It is expected to reduce the supply of 0.8-1gw silicon wafers, resulting in a shortage of short-term supply. It is expected that the price of silicon wafers will still rise in the future.
3) battery: the mainstream transaction prices of M6 / M10 / G12 products were about 1.05 yuan / W, 1.08 yuan / W and 1.04 yuan / W respectively, which were flat month on month. Towards the end of the year, with the continuous price reduction of upstream monocrystalline silicon wafer in the early stage and gradually stable or even rebound in the near future, the profit level of battery manufacturers is expected to gradually improve. At the same time, when some downstream component factories begin to have the demand for goods prepared years ago, the demand for battery end at the downstream component end in China is slightly warmer than that in the early stage, and the operating rate of battery wafer is expected to reach 60-70% in January; The rising price of silicon wafers and the recovery of downstream demand are expected to form a certain support for the price of battery wafers.
4) components: the component price stabilized this week, and the mainstream transaction prices of M6 / M10 / G12 products were about 1.85 yuan / W, 1.88 yuan / W and 1.88/w respectively. Looking forward to the demand from January to February, it seems that the overall demand continues to improve month on month compared with December. Considering the stock demand before the Spring Festival, the operating rate of Chinese component manufacturers, especially large component manufacturers, will increase next month. The production scheduling of front-line component manufacturers is expected to reach 60-70% in January, and even some large vertically integrated manufacturers are expected to be full, with an overall increase of 10-20% compared with December, It is expected to reach a phased high in March. Affected by the price increase of upstream silicon material and silicon wafer, the component price is expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival.
5) auxiliary materials: photovoltaic glass decreased slightly, and the price of adhesive film was stable. This week, the average price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass was maintained at 25 yuan / m2, and the average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass was maintained at 19.2 m2; EVA adhesive film was maintained at 15.5 yuan / m2, Poe adhesive film was maintained at 17 yuan / m2, and the prices of glass and adhesive film were the same as last week. From the perspective of raw materials, the inventory of soda ash enterprises this week was 1.8203 million tons, with a month on month decrease of 14800 tons. Near the Spring Festival, there was goods preparation in the downstream, resulting in the inflection point of soda ash inventory, and it is expected that the price will rebound after the Festival; This week, EVA photovoltaic materials were maintained at 20000 yuan / ton, the decline slowed down, and the price has reached the bottom. At present, in the new start-up units, due to the limitations of kettle process in Quanzhou and Yangzi Petrochemical, EVA photovoltaic materials can only be supplied in small quantities, which is expected to be 2000-3000 tons / month. Therefore, Yulin Yanchang and Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II tubular units have been started up and can achieve a large proportion of photovoltaic material production, The two enterprises successfully produced photovoltaic materials in August and December respectively. At present, Zhejiang Petrochemical products are in the verification process of rubber film enterprises.
