Key investment points
Event: in December 2021, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 4126.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7% and a compound growth of 3.2% over the two years.
Social zero growth rate was lower than expected. In December, the social zero growth rate was 1.7%, lower than the 3.9% unanimously expected by wind, and the growth rate decreased by 2.2 percentage points compared with that in November. Compared with 2019, the social zero growth rate in December was 6.4%, down 2.6 percentage points from November. The epidemic situation was superimposed repeatedly, the macroeconomic growth rate fell, and the social zero growth rate was lower than expected. In 2021, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 44082.3 billion yuan, an increase of 12.5% over the previous year, and the two-year compound growth rate was 3.9%. After deducting price factors, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2021 increased by 10.7% over the previous year.
Sub channel: the growth rate of online commodity sales bottomed out, with a single month growth rate of 1.9%, and the online penetration was flat month on month. From January to December, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 12.0% year-on-year, and the cumulative growth rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points month on month compared with November, accounting for 24.5% of the total social retail sales, which was flat month on month compared with November. In a single month, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 998.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, a month on month decrease of 5.5 percentage points compared with November, and a compound growth of 4.1% in two years.
Category: the growth rate of mandatory consumer goods is stable, and the growth rate of optional consumer goods has dropped significantly. Among the required consumer goods, grain, oil, food, beverage, tobacco and alcohol above the quota increased by 11.3%, 12.6% and 7.0% respectively year-on-year, continuing the steady high growth rate. Except for daily necessities (+ 18.8%) and traditional Chinese and Western Medicine (+ 9.4%), the growth rate of optional consumer goods decreased significantly, including gold, silver and jewelry, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.2%.
Location of sub business units: the year-on-year growth rate of the total zero amount of rural cooperatives is slightly higher than that of cities and towns. In December, the total amount of urban / rural cooperatives was 1.5% / 2.8% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rate decreased significantly compared with November.
Investment suggestion: for offline retail, the jewelry retail business model is good, the market concentration is gradually improved, and it is recommended to have its own characteristics α Leading company Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) (002867. SZ); Shangchao may usher in fundamental repair in 2022. It is recommended that the leading company Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) (603708. SH) with density economic barriers. E-commerce is getting closer to the stock market, competition has intensified, and the industry concentration shows a downward trend. In the short term, JD (9618. HK), which benefits from antitrust dividends and provides differentiated supply chain, is recommended; Long term optimistic about the stability of meituan (3690. HK) core business and the differentiated competitive advantage of VIPs. N.
Risk warning event: repeated covid-19 epidemic; Declining consumption tendency; Industry competition intensifies.
