Food and beverage: the tide of price increase in the food sector is on the way, focusing on food companies with clear logic and good competition pattern. In 2021, under the background of the widening scissors gap between PPI and CPI, with the transmission of upstream raw material cost pressure to the downstream, the food industry ushered in a price rise tide again. Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Li Jinji, Jiangsu Hengshun Vinegar-Industry Co.Ltd(600305) and other companies have issued price increase announcements to adjust the ex factory prices of some products to a certain extent. It is expected that other companies will follow up one after another. From the perspective of historical recovery, industries and companies that can be successfully transmitted to the downstream after the price increase and have improved profitability can usher in the secondary rise in share prices after the price increase. We suggest paying attention to the food industry and companies with long-term logic and good competition pattern, such as beer and condiments. We recommend Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , and Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) .
Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and Fishery: aquaculture focuses on high-quality production capacity, and animal protection is destined to be the leader in the subdivided field of price right. In terms of pig breeding, affected by the recovery of pig supply, pig prices have fallen deeply since the beginning of 2021, and the industry has continued to increase its capacity removal since June. Looking forward to the future, we expect that the pig supply will be released before the middle of 2022, the pig price will continue to be under pressure, and the industry inflection point is expected to come in 2022h2. The investment level should focus on high-quality production capacity with obvious cost advantages and stable operation. It is recommended to pay attention to Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) and COFCO Jiakang; In terms of animal vaccines, the rapid increase in the concentration of downstream breeding has weakened the bargaining power of animal protection enterprises and intensified industrial competition, resulting in a sharp decline in the prices of core pig vaccine products such as foot-and-mouth disease compared with those before the non plague, and the performance of animal protection enterprises has returned to pressure. However, with the accelerated penetration of market vaccines, the industry is expected to continue to expand, and the investment value of subdivided vaccine leaders with good competition pattern is highlighted, It is recommended to pay attention to Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) , Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) .
Risk tips:
Macroeconomic environment risk: the prosperity of the consumer industry is greatly affected by the macro economy. Be vigilant against changes in the macro environment to drive fluctuations in the prosperity of the consumer industry.
Risk of intensified competition in the industry: the competition in the consumer goods industry is relatively incentive. Intensified competition in the industry may lead to problems such as price war and channel profit compression, and affect the prosperity of the industry.
Policy factor risk: policy changes have a great impact on the industry as a whole, such as consumption tax reform, import and export tariff policy, etc.
