Investment: the monthly investment growth rate was negative in April, and the decline expanded to double digits, with an annual growth rate of 4.4%. In 2021, the national investment in real estate development was 14760.2 billion yuan, an increase of 4.4% (CAGR 5.7% in two years, the same below); In December, the monthly investment was 1028.8 billion yuan, down 16.9% and 13.9% respectively, 9.6pct lower than the previous value. In the environment of tight financing and sluggish sales, the land acquisition, new construction and completion of real estate enterprises are weak, and the decline of investment is expanded. As the liquidity pressure of real estate enterprises is difficult to improve in the short term, and the base is high in the first half of 21 years, it is expected that the investment will continue to be under pressure before the policy is further relaxed.
Land acquisition: the purchase area in a single month decreased by 33.2%, increased by 34.1%, and the cumulative purchase area in the whole year decreased by 15.5%. In the past 21 years, the cumulative land acquisition area was 215.9 million m3, with a decrease of 15.5% (- 8.6%); The value in December was 33.03 million square meters, with an increase of 34.1% and a decrease of 33.2%, 20.7 PCT lower than the previous value. The cumulative land transaction price in 21 years was 1775.6 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8% at the same time; The value of the current month was 323.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.2%. In December, the third batch of centralized land auction was completed one after another. In addition, many real estate enterprises actively made up their positions at the end of the year, and the land purchase area improved month on month. However, due to the great pressure on the financing and sales side of real estate enterprises, the overall enthusiasm for land acquisition is still low. Most local auction transactions are supported by central enterprises, state-owned enterprises and urban investment companies.
New construction: the year-on-year decline of new construction in a single month expanded to 31.1%, and the new construction area in the whole year decreased by 11.4% year-on-year. In the past 21 years, the accumulated new construction area of real estate enterprises was 1988.95 million m3, with a decrease of 11.4% (- 6.4%) and 160.76 million m3 in December, with a decrease of 31.1%, 10.1pct lower than the previous value. Mainly affected by the decline in land transactions, greater liquidity pressure and downward sales expectations, the new construction capacity and willingness of real estate enterprises are weak. We expect that the new construction in Q1 in 22 years will remain low year-on-year before the liquidity of real estate enterprises improves.
Completion: the month on month completion increased by 185%, the year-on-year growth narrowed to 2%, and the cumulative completion growth rate decreased to 11.2%. In 21 years, the accumulated completed area of real estate enterprises was 1014.12 million m3, an increase of 11.2% (2.8%) at the same time; The completed area in a single month was 326.58 million m3, with an increase of 184.9% and 1.9% respectively. Due to the great capital pressure of real estate enterprises, the year-on-year growth rate of completion in December narrowed. However, due to the completion peak in 21 years and the stricter supervision of pre-sale funds this year, real estate enterprises took the initiative to shorten the node time and unfreeze the pre-sale funds to alleviate the capital pressure, and the annual completion growth rate reached a new high in recent years. Considering the weak overall new construction data in 21 years, it is expected that the completion end in 22 years will also be affected. Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325)
Sales: the sales amount of commercial housing in a single month increased year-on-year and month on month, with the annual sales amount increasing by 4.8%. The sales amount of commercial housing in the whole year of 21 was 18193 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8% (6.7%) at the same time; In December, the sales amount of commercial housing was 2026.3 billion yuan, with a ring increase of 39.9% and a decrease of 17.8%, 1.5pct lower than the previous value. Due to the sprint sales of real estate enterprises at the end of the year and the relaxation of mortgage margin, the sales recovered month on month, but the overall market sentiment is still not high. It is expected that the follow-up will improve with the further relaxation of policies.
Funds: the funds in place of real estate enterprises decreased by 19% year-on-year in a single month, and the funds in place throughout the year increased by 4.2%. In the whole year of 21, the total amount of funds in place of real estate enterprises was 20113.2 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2% at the same time; In December, the capital in place was 1777 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.3% and an increase of 6.0%. Affected by the decline of sales and the strict control of pre-sale funds, the decline of deposit and advance collection continued to expand, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.9% in December; After a brief recovery, personal mortgage loans turned from positive to negative to – 8% year-on-year in December, and the funds in place of real estate enterprises are still under pressure.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the policy inflection point has been established since the fourth quarter of last year, and the marginal improvement trend is significant, but the overall strength is still not enough to make a significant repair to the industry fundamentals, and the effect on some private enterprises trapped in the mud is limited. We believe that the current favorable policies have not reached the peak. In the follow-up, the policies continue to be favorable, focusing on the enterprise capital side and the secondary demand side. Considering corporate credit, liquidity, land reserve and other aspects, we suggest to pay attention to real estate enterprises, including A-share Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; H-share China overseas development, green city China, China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Jinmao, China Overseas Hongyang.
Risk tip: the impact of the epidemic is higher than expected, sales are lower than expected, and the credit default of real estate enterprises and its impact spread risk.
