Industry core view:
In December, Alibaba's online sales data were released. Taking advantage of the marketing publicity of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) revenue showed a bright performance, driving the online sales of the dairy industry to rise sharply year-on-year this month; Affected by the tiktok outbreak around the world, the rise of the new online channels such as Kwai Chung, the US group, the fast hand and the spoil and so on, have diverted the flow of the platform, and the sales of other industries of food and beverage have declined to varying degrees. In Baijiu, the volume and price of liquor decreased and the concentration of beer increased. Among the popular products, the sales performance of leisure snacks is poor, the sales and prices of dairy products rise, and the price of condiments remains basically stable; The markets for leisure snacks and condiments are relatively scattered, and the dairy industry has accelerated integration, with obvious head effect. Under the background of rising raw material costs, the average price of dairy industry continues to rise. We are optimistic about the multi-channel layout and diversified marketing of leading brands in various sectors in the medium and long term. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders in subdivided sectors with certain pricing power, as well as dairy enterprises that are expected to open up the rising market due to the superposition of price rise logic of winter Olympic marketing.
Key investment points:
Baijiu online price volume down, brand performance differentiation. In December Baijiu online sales fell year on year, sales volume was 922 million yuan (YoY-48.95%), sales volume was 2 million 372 thousand and 400 (YoY-28.71%), the average price fell to 388.50 yuan (YoY-28.40%), CR3 was 34.09% (MoM-12.41pct). In December, Maotai achieved online sales of 129.3814 million yuan (yoy-66.38%), accounting for 14.04% (mom-7.51pct), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) achieved online sales of 131.5414 million yuan (yoy-30.71%), accounting for 14.27% (mom-4.30pct). Fenjiu, Jiannanchun, Yanghe, Langjiu and other secondary high-end leading brand lines accounted for 5.78% (mom-0.61pct), 5.56% (mom + 1.38pct), 5.29% (mom + 0.79pct) and 4.00% (mom-0.01pct) respectively.
The year-on-year decline in beer sales narrowed, and the share of leading cities fell. In December, the online sales volume of beer was 116 million yuan (yoy-12.68%), the sales volume was 1.4868 million pieces (YoY + 4.30%), the online average price was 77.87 yuan (yoy-16.28%), CR3 was 27.60% (mom-15.82pct), and the industry concentration decreased. Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Budweiser beer and Harbin beer achieved sales of 1251.95/1038.32/9048200 yuan respectively (yoy-14.98% / - 30.65% / + 39.72%), and Harbin beer further consolidated its top three position in the industry.
The sales performance of leisure snacks was poor, and the industry concentration decreased. In December, the online sales volume of snacks was 5.714 billion yuan (yoy-22.48%), the sales volume was 222 million pieces (yoy-9.90%), the average price was 25.76 yuan (yoy-13.96%), and CR3 decreased to 18.18% (mom-3.29pct). The online sales of nuts reached 1.082 billion yuan, accounting for 18.94% (mom + 3.94%), ranking first in the industry. In December, the sales of the three giants Three Squirrels Inc(300783) , Baicao flavor and Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) on the leisure snack line were 413 / 353 / 273 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of - 55.28% / - 44.68% / - 43.22%; The online sales volume was 1083.85/1032.79/8207100 pieces, with a year-on-year decrease of - 45.19% / - 44.13% / - 40.74%. Three Squirrels Inc(300783) take the nut main strategy and Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) fight the battle of multi category layout.
The sales volume and price of dairy products rose in December, and Yili's share rose significantly. In December, the online sales volume of dairy industry was 2.025 billion yuan (YoY + 56.30%), and the sales volume was 31.6693 million pieces (YoY + 46.21% (mom + 16.64 PCT), accounting for 45.17% (mom + 27.65 PCT); Pure milk achieved sales of 786 million yuan, accounting for 38.84% (mom-22.53pct). In December, Yili Ali channel achieved sales of 1.008 billion yuan (YoY + 236.80%), ranking first in the industry, with sales of 14.5575 million pieces (YoY + 235.90%); Mengniu achieved sales of 278 million yuan (YoY + 34.75%) and sales of 3759600 pieces (YoY + 14.33%).
The year-on-year decline in seasoning sales this month narrowed, and Haitian ranked first in market share. In December, the seasoning industry realized online sales of 1.048 billion yuan (yoy-6.80%), sales of 44.2149 million pieces (yoy-0.32%), average price of 23.70 yuan (yoy-6.51%), and online CR3 of 8.04% (mom-5.77pct). The sales of seasonings / compound condiments in sub categories reached 429 million yuan (YoY-7.76%), accounting for 40.95%, ranking the first in the industry. Seasoning sauce and daily condiments achieved sales of 297 / 193 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of - 7.52% / + 1.61%, accounting for 28.38% / 18.39% respectively, ranking second and third in the industry. Haitian's sales accounted for 4.21% (mom-3.35pct), ranking first in the industry for 11 consecutive months, further consolidating its leading position.
Risk factors: 1 Policy risk 2 Food safety risk 3 Epidemic risk 4 The risk of economic growth falling short of expectations.
