In 2021, the sales volume of excavator in China market increased negatively, and the proportion of exports reached a new high. According to the statistics of CCMA excavator branch, in 2021, the 25 main engine manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics sold 342784 excavators (including exports), with a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the sales volume in the Chinese market decreased by 6.3% year-on-year to 274357 excavators, the first negative growth since 2016. From the perspective of single month, the sales volume of excavators in December 2021 was 24038 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.8%. Among them, the sales volume in China market decreased by 43.5% to 15423 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.85 percentage points narrower than that in November. In terms of export, in December, the export sales volume of excavators increased by 104.6% year-on-year to 8615 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.63 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. In 2021, the export sales volume of excavators increased by 97.0% year-on-year to 68427 sets, and the export proportion increased by 9.36 percentage points year-on-year to 19.96%. The export sales volume and export proportion reached a record high.
Impacted by multiple factors, China’s Excavator demand weakens in the short term. In December 2021, the sales volume of large, medium and small excavators in China decreased by 40.1%, 48.7% and 41.9% respectively year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate in a single month continued a significant downward trend. Under the joint influence of factors such as the lower growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2021 than the market expectation and the year-on-year decline of new construction area of houses, the market demand for excavators in China showed a downward trend in the short term. From the cumulative data, the cumulative sales of large, medium and small excavators in China in 2021 were 33545, 77818 and 162994 respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 12.8%, 0.7% and – 8.0% respectively. The proportion of medium excavation sales increased by 1.98 percentage points to 28.36% year-on-year, and the proportion of large and small excavation sales decreased by 0.9 and 1.08 percentage points respectively.
The national Standing Committee once again emphasized steady growth, and the demand for construction machinery is expected to improve marginally. There will still be some downward pressure on China’s economy in 2022, and investment is expected to play an important role again in underpinning the economy. The national standing committee meeting held on January 10 pointed out the need to put steady growth in a more prominent position, deploy and accelerate the promotion of major projects identified in the outline of the 14th five year plan and the special plan, and stressed the need to transfer the 1.2 trillion yuan of local government special bond funds issued in the fourth quarter of 2021 to specific projects as soon as possible, and pay close attention to the issuance of special bonds issued this year, Strive to form more physical workload in the first quarter. Recently, many places have determined the list of major projects in 2022 focusing on water conservancy, transportation, new infrastructure and other fields. With the gradual implementation of a series of major projects, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will gradually increase, and China’s construction machinery demand is expected to improve marginally. With the continuous promotion of digital and intelligent transformation, the core competitiveness of China’s leading enterprises is expected to further improve. It is suggested to pay attention to Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) , Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) and parts faucet Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) .
Risk warning: market risk caused by repeated global epidemic; The economic recovery outside China was lower than expected; Market risks caused by the further deterioration of China US comprehensive relations; Market competition intensifies, and the performance growth of construction machinery companies is lower than expected; The risk of the Fed raising interest rates beyond expectations, other black swan events, etc; Systemic risk of secondary market outside China.
