\u3000\u3000 Chengdu Guibao Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300019) (300019)
Event:
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 2.55 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 67%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 252-292 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 25% - 45%), and a net profit of 234-274 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 26% - 48%), exceeding market expectations. In 2022, the price of the company's main raw materials will return to a reasonable range, and the profitability will be repaired; With the company's new projects put into operation, the future performance will continue to improve steadily.
Comments:
The price of raw materials returned to a reasonable range, and the profit in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations. The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected to achieve an operating revenue of RMB 2.55 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 67%, a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 252-292 million, a year-on-year increase of 25% - 45%, and a deduction of non net profit of RMB 234-274 million, a year-on-year increase of 26% - 48%; Among them, the revenue in the fourth quarter was 870 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 90-130 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.4% - 95.3%. Since the fourth quarter, the prices of the company's main raw materials have returned to a reasonable range. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the average market prices of 107 glue in November / December 2021 were 3470026754 yuan / ton respectively, a significant decrease from the average price of 59258 yuan / ton in October; With the decline of the price of main raw materials, the profitability of the company has been repaired. It is expected that in 2022, with the continuous production of new capacity of upstream DMC, the tight pattern of supply and demand will be further alleviated, and the price of raw materials will continue to stabilize in a reasonable range.
New projects have been steadily promoted, and the production capacity is expected to double after being put into operation. Among the 100000 tons of high-end silicone sealant production capacity raised and invested by the company in the early stage, 40000 tons of production capacity has been officially put into operation in July 2021, and the remaining 60000 tons of sealant production capacity is under steady construction. It is expected to be completed and put into operation successively this year and next, and the production capacity is expected to double after reaching the production capacity. In the field of construction glue, the company's market share continued to increase, with a compound growth rate of more than 20%, continued to maintain growth toughness exceeding market expectations, and stabilized its leading position in industry segmentation; In the field of industrial glue, the downstream photovoltaic industry has high demand certainty, the number of large customers and procurement share have increased rapidly, and the performance has increased significantly.
Layout silicon carbon cathode materials and embrace the new energy industry chain. Taking advantage of its silicon material industry advantages, the company actively arranges carbon silicon cathode materials, and plans to build a 10000 t / a silicon carbon cathode material for lithium battery, a 40000 t / a special adhesive production base, and a lithium battery material R & D center. At present, among all kinds of negative electrode materials, the theoretical capacity of traditional negative electrode graphite material is close to 372mah / g, while the theoretical capacity of silicon carbon negative electrode material can reach 4200mah / g, which is much higher than other materials and has good fast charging performance. It is an ideal alternative material in the future. In addition, the company signed a long-term strategic cooperation agreement with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) to deeply embrace the new energy industry chain.
The performance inflection point has reached and the "buy" rating is maintained. Last year, the company's profits were affected by the decline in profit margin caused by the sharp rise in the price of upstream raw materials. In Q4, with the decline in the price of raw materials, the profit margin was improved. At the same time, new production capacity began to be released, and the performance inflection point has reached; In the long run, the company's layout in the field of new energy is worth looking forward to. In the future, the implementation of silicon carbon cathode material project is expected to boost the company's valuation system, sign a long-term strategic cooperation agreement with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , deeply embrace the new energy industry chain, and determine the future growth space. We expect the company to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 269 / 432 / 607 million in 21-23 years, with eps0.1 billion 69 / 1.10/1.55, corresponding to pe35 1 / 20.7 / 14.7x, maintaining the "buy" rating
Risk warning: raw material price fluctuates and product demand does not meet expectations
