\u3000\u3000 Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) (300662)
Headhunting started as a human service leader focusing on spiritual work, and the spiritual work business is expected to continue its high growth. Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) started as a headhunter with strong recruitment ability and significant first mover advantage. It has completed the layout of the whole industrial chain and has grown into a leader in Chinese people’s clothing focusing on flexible work. The volume of the company’s linggong business is still small (only covering 7 categories of Posts and more than 30000 people in charge of linggong). At present, the supply of linggong business is in short supply and is in the golden stage of accelerated growth; The compound growth rate of the company’s flexible work revenue in recent six years is 48.9%, and the growth rate in 2021h1 continues to increase to 80.6%; In the future, with the improvement of efficiency, the expansion of capacity boundary, the horizontal expansion of Posts and vertical deep cultivation, the flexible work business is expected to continue its high growth.
Flexible employment industry has a broad space, and there is a large space for penetration improvement. Flexible employment is more flexible, with the triple business value of enterprise value landing rigid demand + cost reduction and tax saving + risk transfer, which can effectively match the needs of employment enterprises and job seekers and improve the matching efficiency of social supply and demand. It is estimated that China’s flexible employment will break through the trillion market in 2022, and the flexible employment is entering a high business cycle mainly driven by the improvement of penetration rate. The penetration rate of China’s flexible employment industry is less than 1%, which has 3-10 times the penetration rate of overseas mature markets (the United States, Japan and the European Union) in the same period. In the future, benefiting from the expansion of enterprise scale, the improvement of management ability, the rigid rise of human cost and the gradual disappearance of demographic dividend, the social demand for flexible employment will be fully released, and the growth space of flexible employment is very broad.
The competition pattern is excellent and scattered, the leading barriers are deep, and the concentration is accelerated. The scuffle in the industry has basically ended, and leading enterprises such as Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) , Wanbao Shenghua and Renrui talents have gradually grown up; The competition pattern is still highly fragmented, and the sum of the three cities accounted for only 5.6% in 2020. The three leaders have their own advantages and less positive competition. After years of deep cultivation, they have formed a good brand reputation, accumulated huge high-quality b-end customer resources and C-end candidate pool, and have capital and compliance advantages, significant first mover advantages and deep barriers. In the future, with the continuous strong market demand for flexible workers, the leader will continue to build deep barriers, and the market share is expected to accelerate the concentration.
The main business of science and technology empowerment shows strategic leadership + the operation mode of front store and back factory shows organizational leadership, continues to improve operation efficiency, reach ability, consolidate recruitment ability and build core competitiveness. Under the industry characteristics of people managing people, large and scattered, and business snowballing growth, it is very important to explore the capability boundary of enterprises in the face of broad market space. Investment in science and technology, improving operation efficiency, reaching ability and consolidating recruitment ability are not only the only way for leading human resources enterprises, but also the key to the decisive victory of the industry competition in the second half. We believe that among the leading human resources enterprises focusing on flexible employment in China, Kerui is a rare enterprise with financial strength, strategic courage and executive power. It has continuously improved the ecological model of “service + technology + platform” and invested in the development of its four technology platforms (vertical recruitment platform, industrial Internet platform, official enterprise recruitment applet and SaaS technology platform) through overweight technology, Aggregate industry resources, expand capacity radius and link long tail customers; Up to now, the synergy of the four technology platforms has gradually become apparent, and the phased achievements are considerable.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we are optimistic about the high growth potential of the company’s flexible employment. The future performance growth mainly comes from the sustained high growth of flexible labor business and the stable growth of headhunting and recruitment process outsourcing business; At the same time, the three main businesses of science and technology empowerment and linking long tail customers are expected to improve the scale effect, reduce costs and increase efficiency. Based on the above, we adjusted the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the revenue in 2021 / 2022 / 2023 will be 6.886 billion yuan / 10.501 billion yuan / 15.694 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 75.1% / 52.5% / 49.5%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 255 million yuan / 337 million yuan / 439 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 37.0% / 32.0% / 30.2%. The corresponding dynamic PE: 45 / 34 / 26x, which is rated as “buy”.
Risk tips: manage boundary and bottleneck risks; Cash flow risk caused by advance: business fluctuation risk of key customers; Brain drain risk of headhunting consultants; Risk of recurrent outbreaks; Domestic and foreign markets and companies outside China are not fully comparable, and the relevant materials and data of benchmarking are only for reference.
