\u3000\u3000 Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (300073)
Event overview. On January 17, 2022, the company issued a performance forecast. In 2021, the company is expected to realize a net profit of 1-1.05 billion yuan, an increase of 159.81% – 172.80%, and a net profit of 740-790 million yuan after deduction, an increase of 203.83% – 224.36%. The main reasons for the sharp year-on-year increase of the company’s net profit in 2021 are as follows: 1. The rapid growth of customers’ demand for the company’s products at home and abroad, and the company’s new production capacity is put into operation at full capacity. In 2021, the company’s sales of lithium cathode materials increased significantly year-on-year. 2. In 2021, the company achieved rapid and large-scale production of high nickel products, and the overall profitability of the products increased steadily. 3. The company received the payment from BIC and the price of Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) shares increased, and the non recurring income increased.
21q4 performed well. According to the calculation of the median value of the performance forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 298 million yuan, an increase of 147.3% and a ring increase of 6.1%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 251 million yuan, an increase of 14 times and a ring increase of 12.5%. We expect the net profit per ton to be flat and the shipment volume to increase month on month after non deduction in 21q4.
Capacity growth has stepped into the fast lane, and overseas card slots are arranged for high-quality customers. In the whole year of 21, the shipment was close to 50000 tons, and it is expected to reach more than 70000 tons in 22 years. The previously announced production expansion of 50000 tons of high nickel cathode and 20000 tons of consumer cathode was carried out steadily, superimposed with 100000 tons of production capacity in Europe, and the long-term planned production capacity was close to 300000 tons. The company’s current customers mainly include SK, LG, Yiwei and North American customers, with high-quality structure. In the future, the production capacity layout in Europe and South Korea is expected to further strengthen the relationship with overseas customers and enter the global market.
Leading technology, layout of solid-state battery cathode and LFP. Relying on the Mining Research Institute and leading technology, the company develops high-performance LFP and lfmp materials, which are expected to be shipped quickly. The company will also cooperate with SK and Zhongwei in the field of lithium iron phosphate. LFP route has cost and safety advantages, has broad prospects in energy storage and medium and low-end models, and will complement the company’s existing high nickel technology route. Previously, the company announced that it would supply no less than 25000 tons of solid-state lithium battery materials to blue, which is expected to take the lead in shipping solid-state lithium battery cathode materials.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.025 billion, RMB 1.511 billion and RMB 1.940 billion (previously predicted to be RMB 1.096 billion, RMB 1.389 billion and RMB 1.914 billion), an increase of 166%, 48% and 28% at the same time. The current share price corresponds to 39, 27 and 21 times of PE from 2021 to 2023 respectively. Referring to the current CS new energy vehicle index 106 times pe-ttm (wind consistent profit expectation), considering that the company is a positive leading enterprise, maintain the “recommended” rating
Risk tip: the sales volume of terminal new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The production expansion speed is lower than expected; Competition for cathode materials has intensified.
