\u3000\u3000 Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) (002371)
On January 16, Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) released the performance forecast. The company expects to achieve an operating revenue of RMB 8.478-10.901 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 40-80%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 940-1208 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 75-125%; The non net profit deducted was RMB 690-887 million, with a year-on-year increase of 250-350%.
Revenue growth exceeded expectations and profitability improved. The median revenue forecast for 2021 is RMB 9.690 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 60%, corresponding to Q4 revenue of RMB 3.517 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 58% and a month on month increase of 37%, exceeding market expectations. On the profit side, Q4 in 2021 also has a considerable month on month growth. The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent in 2021 to be 940-1208 million yuan, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent in Q4 to be 282-550 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34-161% and a month on month change of – 19-58%; It is estimated that the non net profit deducted in 2021 will be RMB 690-887 million, corresponding to RMB 164-361 million in Q4 single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 631-1507% and a month on month change of – 45-20%.
It is worth noting that the company expects an equity incentive fee of RMB 350 million in 2021, which is not accrued in the first three quarters and is expected to be accrued at the end of the year. Therefore, the actual profit growth rate is higher than the appearance. After the incentive fee is added back, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is RMB 1.290-1.558 billion, corresponding to q46.6 billion 3.1-900 billion yuan, an increase of 81-156% month on month; The non net profit deducted in the whole year was RMB 1.040-1.237 billion, corresponding to q45.5 billion RMB 1.4-711 billion, an increase of 71-137% month on month.
Platform development, fixed increase and landing, and the business territory will grow again. The company is a leading equipment manufacturer in China with an extremely broad product line. In the field of IC equipment, there are three main products: PVD, etching and furnace tube. Cleaning, CVD and other products also have layout. At the same time, there are photovoltaic equipment, panel equipment, LED equipment and components in the field of Pan semiconductor.
In November 2021, the company completed the fixed increase and raised RMB 8.5 billion to invest in equipment and component expansion projects and high-end equipment R & D projects. It is expected that after the completion of the raised investment projects in 2023, the annual production capacity of 500 integrated circuit equipment, 500 emerging semiconductor equipment, 300 LED equipment and 700 photovoltaic equipment will be formed, which should correspond to the annual output value of about RMB 7.46 billion, As well as the annual output value of 443 million yuan devices, the growth space is fully opened.
Continuous expansion of the wafer factory, high demand for equipment and long-term growth. TSMC’s capex guidance for 2022 is US $40-44 billion, an increase of about 40% year-on-year, maintaining a high growth rate, and is optimistic about the prosperity of semiconductors. Unlike 70-80% of TSMC’s capital expenditure on advanced processes of 7Nm and below, the demand for mature processes of 28nm and above is mainly met by the capacity expansion of major wafer factories in the mainland. According to the public information of caizhao.com, in December 2021, Huahong group announced the large-scale bidding of 292 sets of equipment, which exceeded the completion of the bidding in 2021, with considerable strength; SMIC Shenzhen announced the commencement of land acquisition in December 2021, and SMIC Lingang held a commencement ceremony in January 2022; The capacity construction of Changcun, Changxin, Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) and Wentai is also advancing in an orderly manner. 2023 will still be the peak for the centralized implementation of China’s wafer manufacturing lines, and the upstream equipment market is expected to usher in sustained high growth.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company’s revenue in 2021, 22 and 23 will be 9.701 billion yuan, 14.05 billion yuan and 18.472 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding current price PS will be 17 / 12 / 9 times respectively. Considering the company’s market position as the leader of China’s semiconductor equipment, the broad product line is expected to make it fully enjoy the dividends of downstream expansion and localization, and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: product verification is not as expected; Cyclical fluctuations in downstream industries; Market competition intensifies.
