\u3000\u3000 Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) (688099)
Events
On January 17, the company released a performance forecast. It is estimated that in the 21st year, the company will achieve a revenue of RMB 4.74-4.79 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73.1% - 74.9%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 780-840 million, a year-on-year increase of 579.2% - 631.5%, and a net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company of RMB 670-730 million, a year-on-year increase of 688.2% - 758.8%.
Commentary
The performance in 21 years exceeded expectations, and the revenue and profit increased significantly. In 2021, the company realized a revenue of RMB 4.74-4.79 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73.1% - 74.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 780-840 million, a year-on-year increase of 579.2% - 631.5%; 21q4 achieved a revenue of 1.506-1.556 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55% - 60%, and a net profit of 279-339 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 118% - 165%. Both revenue and net profit exceeded market expectations, mainly benefiting from: 1) the high prosperity of aiot industry and the continuous growth of consumer electronics demand, and the company accelerated global market expansion; 2) With the help of existing high-quality customer groups and channel advantages, accelerate the introduction of new products in vehicle infotainment system, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and other scenes, significantly increase the shipment of WiFi Bluetooth chips and start to contribute revenue.
Accelerate overseas market expansion, and the shipment of intelligent set-top boxes and AI audio and video chips has increased significantly. 1) The sharp growth of intelligent set-top box chip shipments benefits from: ① the Chinese market benefits from a new round of set-top box replacement cycle; ② The overseas market benefited from the company's products being certified by Google and other mainstream conditional access systems, and the products were successfully introduced into mainstream operators and other streaming media providers; ③ Competitor Broadcom is subject to antitrust investigation and Hisilicon is affected by US sanctions. Jingchen ushers in development opportunities. We expect that the global proportion of the company's smart set-top box chip shipments in 22 and 23 years is expected to continue to increase. 2) AI audio and video chips have a wide range of products, leading the 12NM process industry, and diversified application terminals. With the continuous high boom in the downstream, the annual shipments have increased greatly. It is expected to work with well-known brand manufacturers such as Google, Alibaba, Xiaomi, Baidu and Lenovo to accelerate overseas expansion in the next 2-3 years.
Wi Fi Bluetooth chips were successfully mass produced, and the shipment of vehicle chips increased steadily. The company released dual band high-speed data transmission wi-fi5 + BT5 in August 2021 2combo single chip w155s1, which is adapted to Xiaomi portable streaming media device mitvstick, has been mass produced and commercialized. In addition, the company's on-board infotainment system chips have also obtained orders from overseas high-value customers, and the shipment volume is rising steadily. We are optimistic about the two businesses of Wi Fi and vehicle chip, which is expected to become a new driving force for the company's accelerated growth in the future.
Investment advice
We are optimistic about the increase in the share of the company's smart set-top box chips and AI audio and video chips, and the rapid increase in the volume of vehicle chips and WiFi chips. It is estimated that the revenue in 21-23 years will be 4.773/63.73/8044 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 74.3% / 33.5% / 26.2%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 8.10/11.01/1.467 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 20% / 14% / 18%, a year-on-year increase of 605.5% / 35.9% / 14.7%, continuing to maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Downstream demand is lower than expected; Industry competition intensifies; Risk of price rise of raw materials; exchange-rate risks; Risk of lifting the ban.
