\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) (600315)
Event:
The company issued a performance pre increase announcement. It is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 7.66 billion / + 9% in 2021 and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 655 million / + 52%. Looking at Q4 in 2021 alone, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.83 billion yuan / + 9.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 235 million yuan / + 99%. The net profit attributable to the parent company performs brilliantly, exceeding market expectations.
Key investment points:
Steady growth in revenue and outstanding performance. It is estimated that the company will achieve revenue of RMB 7.66 billion / + 9% in 2021, and achieve the target of equity incentive plan B in 2020, of which single Q4 will achieve revenue of RMB 1.83 billion / + 9.8%. The company's performance is brilliant. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 655 million yuan / + 52% in 2021, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 alone is 235 million yuan / + 99%, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company is 214 million yuan / + 79%, which exceeds the previous expectation of the market.
The e-commerce business continued to grow rapidly, and the offline business gradually improved. In 2021, the online Gmv of all brands of the company will grow brightly. In terms of sub brands, Yuze's year-on-year growth performance is bright, and Qichu, Diancui and other brands also perform well. We expect: 1) in terms of online channels, the company's Q4 e-commerce channel is expected to continue the bright growth of the double 11, in which tmall channel continues to strengthen its self broadcasting ability, improve its operation efficiency, and Jingdong, pinduoduo and other platforms develop in an all-round way; 2) In terms of offline channels, the company's traditional CS business and Watson business are expected to achieve rapid growth. The impact of closing department stores has gradually weakened, and the online q4spa has improved the profitability of the channel.
123 reform continued and the digital strategy was steadily promoted. The company's 123 reform is progressing steadily, and its digital ability is also improving. From the perspective of brand, Yuze has begun to build a digital team in 2021. At present, it is in the top 20 of the hot fight list. It is expected to create more explosive products through self broadcasting in the future. Herborist has gained more fans through TikTok palace live broadcast, and the brand has also increased its popularity. In terms of digitization, after CTO joined the company in October 2021, it has accelerated the company's all-channel digitization work. In the future, it is expected to open up the group operation loaded by the Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) unified CRM system and improve the private domain operation ability.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company has a long history and is rated "overweight" for the first time. The company's multi brand operation, in which Liushen has a stable position in the toilet water segment industry, and the skin care products with high gross profit and high growth are expected to perform well. The company's net profit in 2021 exceeded market expectations, gradually verifying the results of the company's reform and efficiency improvement. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will reach RMB 7.66/86.1/9.69 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% / 12.3% / 12.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 655 / 825 / 1036 million, with a year-on-year increase of 52% / 26% / 26%. For the first time, it will be rated as "overweight".
Risk tips: 1) the flow cost has increased significantly; 2) Overseas brands cut prices to seize market share; 3) Product quality problems; 4) Stricter supervision leads to new products that are less than expected; 5) The rapid rise of cutting-edge brands intensifies competition; 6) If the relevant information and data are inconsistent with the Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) announcement, the contents of the company's announcement shall prevail.
