\u3000\u3000 Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) (688099)
Core view
Event: the company released the performance forecast for the whole year of 21 years.
The performance significantly exceeded expectations, and the annual performance reached a new high. The company expects a revenue of 4.74-4.79 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 73% - 75%; Corresponding to Q4 revenue of RMB 1.51-1.56 billion, yoy + 55% - 60%, QoQ 22% - 26%, and single quarter revenue increased continuously. It is estimated that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 780-840 million, yoy + 579% - 631%, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 is RMB 280-340 million, yoy + 117% - 164%, QoQ + 10% - 34%. It is estimated that the annual net profit not attributable to the parent company will be deducted by 670-730 million yuan, yoy + 688% - 759%, corresponding to Q4 deduction of 240-300 million yuan, yoy + 113% - 166%. On the basis of 21 Q3 revenue, net profit attributable to parent company and net profit deducted from non net profit of RMB 1.23 billion, 250 million and 200 million respectively, the revenue and profit in a single quarter reached a new high, promoting the rapid growth of annual performance.
Grasp the boom of high demand, and the shipment of intelligent set-top box and AI audio and video system terminal chips increased rapidly. In the past 21 years, the company has actively expanded global market opportunities. The shipments of intelligent set-top box chips and AI audio and video system terminal chips have increased rapidly, consolidating and improving the market position. The company's set-top box shipments outside China have increased significantly. The bidding for Lu sequel of Chinese operators has led to a new wave of growth in China's set-top box market. The company's overseas expansion has also achieved remarkable results. The company's set-top box chips have entered more than 100 operators around the world and are widely used by Zte Corporation(000063) , Skyworth, Xiaomi, Alibaba, Google, Amazon and other well-known customers. Jingchen is one of the few high threshold TV SOC chip suppliers in China. In terms of AI audio and video system terminal chips, the company's products have covered the fields of smart home, smart office, smart fitness, smart home appliances, smart business, smart terminal analysis box, smart singing and so on, with rich user ecology. Based on the universality and scalability of the company's SOC, the application and customer fields are expected to be further expanded in the future.
The advantages of "customer + platform" help accelerate the introduction of new products. With the help of existing high-quality customer groups and channel advantages, the company accelerates the introduction of new products. In terms of WiFi product line, the company launched the first self-developed dual band high-speed data transmission Wi Fi 5 + Bt 5.2 single chip with high throughput video transmission in August, which has been successfully mass produced. The company's product iteration rhythm is fast and the commercialization process is accelerated. In terms of automotive chips, the company's products are mainly used in the on-board entertainment system, adopt the 12NM process, build-in neural network processor, support graphics, video, image processing and far-field voice functions, support AV1 decoding, meet the requirements of vehicle regulations, and the shipment has increased steadily. In addition, the company's intelligent cockpit chip has opened long-term growth space in layout research and development
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We predict that the company's earnings per share in the year 21-23 will be 1.90/2.80/3.77 yuan respectively (the original forecast for the year 21-23 is 1.59/2.59/3.53 yuan, which mainly increases the income and gross profit margin of intelligent set-top box chips, increases the investment income and slightly reduces the expense rate). According to the 22-year 56 times PE valuation of the comparable company, the corresponding target price is 156.80 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
Chip demand is less than expected; The progress of new product research and development is less than expected; The increase of gross profit margin is less than the expected risk.
