\u3000\u3000 Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) (300363)
Event overview the company released the performance forecast of the annual report in 2021, realizing an operating revenue of 3.004 ~ 3.108 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 45% ~ 50%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 500 ~ 532 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 54% ~ 64%; The net profit of non deduction was 519 ~ 548 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 80% ~ 90%.
Analysis and judgment:
The performance forecast exceeded market expectations and continued to show rapid growth
In 2021, the company's operating revenue and non net profit increased by 45% ~ 50% and 80% ~ 90% year-on-year respectively, of which the operating revenue and non net profit of single Q4 increased by 66.9% ~ 84.6% and 142.1% ~ 184.2% year-on-year respectively. Considering the new capacity and the thickening of relevant large orders in 2021, the company continued to grow at a super high speed and its performance exceeded the market expectations. In 2021, the company continued to promote the capacity-building of cell and gene cdmo business and preparation cdmo capacity. The loss of new business was about RMB 100 million. If the loss of new business was deducted, the net profit deducted was RMB 619 ~ 648 million, with a year-on-year increase of 87.1% ~ 95.8%. The profit of the company's small molecule business continued to show ultra-high growth. Looking forward to 2022, the company's small business will continue to achieve ultra-high performance growth on the basis of high growth of conventional orders, continuous investment in new capacity (Hubei Yuyang, etc.) and thickening of relevant large orders.
The business inflection point was further established and the core competitiveness continued to improve
Cdmo industry is a high-profile track with equal emphasis on scientific and technological attributes (Engineer cluster and low-cost advantage) + asset attributes. As a core participant in small molecule cdmo industry, the company has ushered in an operation inflection point since 2019 after two consecutive years of strategic adjustment and transformation in 2017 and 2018, and has achieved brilliant performance for three consecutive years from 2019 to 2021, All further confirmed the changes in the fundamentals of the company. Since the company's strategic transformation in 2017, the R & D investment has increased unprecedentedly, and various core technology platforms such as crystallization technology and active enzymes have been built. The number of BD has also continued to increase, the fundamentals and business capacity have been rapidly improved and consolidated, the cro business has maintained sustained rapid growth, and the business structure has been more optimized and balanced. In the future, with the improvement of the company's capacity utilization and cro personnel's project management ability, the company's gross profit margin and net profit margin will continue to improve, and the profit side growth rate is expected to continue to exceed the revenue side growth rate. In the long run, the biological drug CMO and preparation CMO arranged by the company will open a broader space for the company. The existing chemical drug cdmo business has a good track and fast growth speed, which is expected to promote the company to maintain a compound growth rate of 30-35% in the next few years.
Investment advice
Considering the performance fluctuation caused by the signing of the company's large orders, slightly adjust the 23-year 21 performance forecast, that is, the revenue in 21-23 is adjusted from RMB 2.967/48.68/5.214 billion to RMB 1992733.96/46.90/5.954 billion, and the EPS is adjusted from RMB 0.92/1.60/1.75 to RMB 0.96/1.54/2.00, corresponding to the closing price of RMB 79.70/share on January 14, 2022, and the PE is 83.33/51.73/39.92 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Orders and revenue growth were lower than expected; The gross profit margin and net profit margin cannot be continuously improved.
