\u3000\u3000 Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) (605499)
The company issued the annual performance forecast for 2021. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.15-1.25 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 41.6% - 53.9%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 1.05-1.15 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 30.45% - 42.87%. Q4 in a single quarter, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 150-250 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 42.6% - 135.1%, deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 80-180 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 19.6% - 75.7%.
The whole year is in line with expectations, and Q4 is expected to maintain rapid growth. The median net profit attributable to the parent company for the whole year was 1.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 47.8%, and the median net profit excluding non attributable to the parent company was 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 36.7%, which was in line with the overall expectation. Q4 is the off-season of the company's operation. It mostly takes the means of stopping goods to digest the inventory and accumulate power. In the coming year, the median net profit deducted from non parent company in Q4 single quarter is 130 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 28%. Considering the impact of rising costs, it is expected that the growth rate of revenue end is faster than that of performance end, and Q4 company maintains a good development trend. The company recognized non recurring profit and loss of RMB 100 million in the whole year. It is expected that in addition to government subsidies, it is mainly due to the Private Placement Shares subscribed by the company as LP with an initial investment of RMB 300 million.
The growth certainty is high and it is still in the fast lane of development. In terms of products, Dongpeng special drink builds its product competitiveness with "cost performance + differentiation". At the same time, the company actively builds a "energy +" product matrix, designs different product forms and products for different segments of people, and has a long-term layout; In terms of marketing, the company's "open space" combination, elevator advertising, short video promotion and film and television titles have greatly improved its brand popularity after listing. At the same time, front-line buying and giving activities have also attracted consumers to improve the frequency of re purchase. Looking forward to 2022, in the face of industrial cost upward pressure, by reviewing the stable performance of the company's gross profit margin in the past few years, we can see its excellent cost control ability. It is expected that scale effect + supply chain optimization will help the company cope with cost pressure. Dongpeng's channel expansion is still on the way, the capacity layout is positive, and it is expected to maintain a rapid growth rate.
Profit forecast and valuation analysis: slightly adjust the previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 6.84/86.9/10.46 billion respectively (previously RMB 6.53/82.7/9.95 billion), a year-on-year increase of + 38.0% / 27.0% / 20.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.22/1.54/1.94 billion yuan respectively (compared with 1.12/1.52/1.89 billion yuan previously), with a year-on-year increase of + 50.3% / 25.7% / 26.5%, corresponding to 51 / 41 / 32 times of PE. It is optimistic about the high growth brought by the company's continuous promotion of nationalization, has configuration value, and is raised to the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the national expansion is less than expected, the cost rise is more than expected, and the promotion of new products is less than expected.
