\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) (600315)
The company predicts that the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will exceed 50%, and the performance growth will exceed expectations: on January 17, 2022, the company disclosed the performance forecast of the annual report in 2021, realizing a revenue of 7.66 billion yuan (+ 9%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 655 million yuan (+ 52%), and deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 688 million yuan (+ 74%). In 2021q4, the company achieved a revenue of 1.83 billion yuan (+ 9.8%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 235 million yuan (+ 99%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 214 million yuan (+ 79%). Q4 revenue growth in line with market expectations, profit growth exceeded market expectations. In a single quarter, the revenue of 2021q1-q4 changed by + 27.0% / + 3.7% / – 3.4% / + 9.8% year-on-year respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company changed by + 41.9% / + 81.7% / + 4.6% / + 99% year-on-year respectively. The revenue and profit growth of 2021q4 showed a good recovery trend.
We expect the performance contribution of e-commerce channels to improve, while special channels and overseas channels are still relatively under pressure: 2021q4 company has effectively improved the investment of e-commerce expenses by reducing the investment of super head anchor, enhancing the self broadcasting drainage of stores, multi platform investment, etc. we expect the performance contribution of e-commerce to improve, and the interest platforms such as JD and pinduoduo also show good growth. The growth rate of “double 11” e-commerce platform in the same caliber reached 38%, of which the growth rate of tmall channel exceeded 35%, and the overall online performance was good. At the same time, we expect offline department stores, CS and other channels to experience Optimization and adjustment and perform relatively well. The special channel and overseas channel are affected by the epidemic, shipping and safety reform. We expect Q4 to remain relatively under pressure.
Herborist 2021H2 launched many new products, and the new product was better. The marketing of the live broadcast room was tiktok: 2021H2, Herborist launched “new products such as biological clock cream”, “water extract of essence”, “anti gravity essence” and other new products. In the first half of the second half of the year, the new product recruitment rate was further improved compared with previous products and entered the top 20 brand products.
During the year, the company exceeded the advanced target of equity incentive performance, and the sustained recovery can be expected: the annual revenue in 2021 was 7.66 billion yuan, higher than the target B of equity incentive revenue target in October 2020 (i.e. the revenue in 2021 was more than 7.6 billion yuan); The net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 655 million, which is far higher than the target a of the revenue target of equity incentive in October 2020 (that is, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is more than RMB 480 million). In 2021q4, the company’s net interest rate reached 12.8%, and the net interest rate in a single quarter improved significantly, reflecting that the company’s effect of increasing efficiency and reducing fees is further reflected, and a sustained recovery is expected in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company continues to focus on building core SKUs and popular models, and innovate channels and marketing models. Considering that the effect of reform and optimization continues to show and the performance growth is fast, we adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from RMB 549 / 842 / 1165 million to RMB 655 / 830 / 1160 million from 2021 to 2023, with a same increase of 52.2% / 26.7% / 39.9%. The current market value corresponding to PE is 39, 31 and 22 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the epidemic affects consumption, industry competition intensifies, and the promotion of new products is less than expected.
