\u3000\u3000 Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (300073)
Key investment points
The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 to be RMB 273-323 million, with a chain comparison of – 3-15%, in line with market expectations. The company expects that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be RMB 1-1.05 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 159.81% – 172.80%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 will be RMB 273-323 million, with a year-on-year increase of 127% – 166% and a month-on-month increase of – 3% – 15%, which is in line with market expectations. In 2021, the net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted from 740-790 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 203.83% – 224.36%, of which the net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted from 226-276 million yuan in 2021q4, with a month-on-month increase of 1% – 24%.
2021q4 is full of production and sales, and the positive business volume is rising at the same time. With the implementation of 10000 tons of capacity in Changzhou phase I and the superposition of some OEM capacity elasticity, we expect the company to ship about 15000 tons in 2021q4, an increase of about 15% month on month. We expect the company to ship about 45000-50000 tons in 2021, doubling the growth. In terms of profitability, we expect that the company’s 21q4 deduction of non single ton net profit is about 16000 yuan / ton, which is flat month on month, contributing 240-250 million yuan of profit. In 2021, we expect that the annual single ton profit will be about 15000-16000 yuan / ton, an increase of 10% over 20 years; In 2022, the proportion of high nickel is expected to be further increased, the product structure is optimized, the overall volume is rising, and the high growth can be expected.
Steady progress was made in expanding production, supporting the company’s performance growth and improving the integrated layout. At present, the company has an effective capacity of 44000 tons, and the capacity of 30000 tons in Changzhou phase I (phase II) is expected to be put into operation in 2022. We expect to contribute to the increment in 2022. Due to the flexibility of the company’s high nickel production capacity switching, medium and high nickel products, considering a certain outsourcing capacity flexibility, we expect that the company’s shipment is expected to reach 90000 tons in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 80% +. The company’s existing capacity is planned to reach 200000 tons, corresponding to about 120gwh + battery demand, which is planned to be improved in the long term. In addition, the company locks in the upstream low-cost nickel resources by means of cooperation. The company establishes a strategic cooperative relationship with Huayou and carries out in-depth cooperation in the upstream mineral resources; Moreover, the company plans to invest in Zhongwei Indonesia laterite nickel mine project, which is conducive to ensuring the demand for precursor raw materials and further reducing the procurement cost of raw materials.
Enter the lithium iron and battery recycling business and expand new profit growth points. The company plans to jointly invest in the upstream and downstream integration project of lithium iron phosphate with Zhongwei in Guizhou. The total capacity of the project is planned to be no less than 300000 t / A. the development of iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate and related phosphorus resources and phosphorus chemical supporting projects, of which dangsheng leads the lithium iron phosphate industry, Zhongwei leads the investment in phosphorus resource development, phosphorus chemical industry and other industries, and shares with each other, It is estimated that the total amount of supporting phosphate rock resources required by the government according to the actual production shall not be less than 200 million tons according to the principle of combining short, medium and long term. The cooperation will accelerate the layout of the company’s lithium iron phosphate business and expand new profit growth points for the company. In addition, the company and Huayou plan to cooperate in the field of battery material recycling to jointly build a lithium battery material circular economy system and realize the coordinated development of economic and social benefits.
Investment suggestion: as the downstream prosperity continues to exceed expectations, we revised up the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to RMB 1.030/16.06/2.269 billion (originally expected to be RMB 1.005/14.03/2.049 billion), with a year-on-year increase of 167% / 56% / 41%, giving 45 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of RMB 143, and maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is less than expected, the policy is less than expected, and the competition is intensified.
