The three major A-share indexes collectively closed up today, of which the Shanghai index rose 0.58% to close at 3541.67 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.51% to close at 14363.57; The gem index rose 1.63% to close at 3170.41. The market turnover reached 1.2 trillion yuan, most industry sectors closed up, and covid-19 drug and digital currency concept stocks broke out.
Today’s news:
1. Bureau of Statistics: GDP exceeded 114 trillion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1%
2. The central bank cut MLF and reverse repo interest rates by 10 basis points
3. Bureau of Statistics: the national population will increase by 480000 in 2021
4. Trillion “ningwang” action! Will you enter the power change track? New energy mileage anxiety or solved
5. Stimulate the “traction” of digital economy and draw a road map from the central to the local
6. The first four seasons report of 10 billion fund managers was released! Exposure of top ten heavyweight stocks to further focus on the upstream of new energy
7. The concept of hydrogen energy is heating up. The industry has entered the fast lane, and listed companies have formed a multi link layout of the industrial chain
8. Tonga submarine volcanic eruption site is like nuclear explosion! Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) will be affected?
For the future market trend, institutions have expressed their views.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the collapse of high-level holding stocks was the main reason for the sharp fluctuation of market sentiment at the beginning of the year. It is expected that investors’ confidence in steady growth policies and economic stabilization will continue to strengthen, and market sentiment will be boosted with the redefinition of the main line of steady growth. The starting point of the market in the first half of the year is approaching, and it is expected to appear before the festival. First of all, the rapid adjustment of high-level conglomerates has induced investors to “cut high to low” and reduce positions. Concerns about the strength of steady growth policies have induced mutual position exchange, resulting in the main line confusion in the first half of the month. However, the market has passed the most panic point of sentiment, and what is missing is the consensus in the main line direction. Secondly, it is expected that the centralized landing of last year’s economic data will make the market form more consistent expectations for this year’s steady growth, the formation of policy synergy is on the way, and the market’s economic expectations for 2022 will be gradually revised. Finally, incremental funds began to stabilize and resume inflow. The clarification of the main line of stable growth will significantly improve market sentiment. It is expected that the starting point of the market in the first half of the year before the festival. It is suggested to continue to focus on the “three low positions”.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that the market will still face periodic pressure under the convergence of negative factors, but considering that the current market transaction congestion is significantly lower than that at the beginning of 2021, it is difficult to form negative feedback → the market has a bottom downward, and the bargain hunting layout is waiting for the new year. 1) At present, the negative factors are intensively interpreted: the negative disturbance at the denominator end is the core contradiction of the recent market. On the one hand, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in December released a strong hawkish signal. Affected by this, the yield of 10-year US bonds rose rapidly. On the basis of the market’s consistent expectation of China’s broad currency in the first half of the year, the impact of overseas disturbance on market liquidity expectation has been marginally amplified. On the other hand, the superposition of real estate credit risk and Omicron exacerbates the pressure of epidemic control in China, so that the risk preference at the denominator is still suppressed. 2) However, there is a bottom in the market downturn: the current market congestion is low → the possibility of stampede is low → there is a bottom in the market downturn, which is not comparable with the market in February 2021. After the Spring Festival, the negative factors with overseas liquidity risk as the core will be gradually implemented and digested. At the same time, with the successive completion of the change of provincial Party and government organs, the steady growth policy will be gradually promoted and strengthened, and the market is expected to gradually recover. On the whole, bargain hunting layout years ago, waiting for the Spring Festival.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that since the beginning of the year, the performance of A-Shares has been relatively low, and the sector has generally fallen. Only a few sectors such as banking, real estate and agriculture have slightly positive returns, which may be due to several reasons: first, from the perspective of China’s environment, the growth has not seen a significant improvement, and investors pay close attention to the strength and rhythm of policy implementation; Second, the spread of the epidemic at home and abroad has accelerated recently, and there is great pressure on epidemic prevention and control in major cities in China. Investors are cautious about the recovery of consumption, especially during the Spring Festival; Third, since the beginning of the year, major global markets have fallen more or less, and the U.S. monetary policy has tightened. Individual investors are also worried that this will affect the risk appetite of a shares. The “growth style” with poor early performance has stabilized recently, and the sharp decline of “growth style” may come to an end, but it may not be in a hurry to copy the bottom; Although the “steady growth” style has been corrected, there may be room for performance in the future. Maintaining the previous “steady growth” style may last until about the end of the first quarter, which may be the judgment that the style will return to the turning point of the growth style more obviously.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that on the whole, people’s doubts about the spring market are mainly due to two concerns: one is that it is difficult for policies to hedge the downward pressure on the macro economy, and the other is that the micro capital is no longer abundant at the beginning of the year. The steady growth policy has been intensively implemented. Based on the historical steady growth policy, the market will eventually rise. In the first quarter, there are often more funds entering the market, which comes from the peak season of employee year-end bonus distribution and asset management product distribution. ③ The adjustment at the beginning of the year does not change the market trend in spring, the structure is balanced, and attention is paid to the undervalued large finance + new and old infrastructure with policy force.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that since the beginning of the year, A-Shares have fluctuated greatly under the resonance of many factors, such as less than expected incremental funds, insufficient financing demand, investors’ less than expected sense of steady growth, a sharp rise in US bond yields, and the continuous epidemic in China. Subsequently, the convening of the local two sessions may strengthen the market’s expectations for steady growth. If the central bank’s monetary policy is further substantially relaxed, the steady growth force after the two sessions is expected to bring a turnaround for a shares. Considering the Spring Festival effect of a shares, there may be a structural rebound in A-Shares in the short term, which can follow the industry layout with performance forecast exceeding expectations.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that the market has suffered turbulence since the beginning of the year, but it is already at the bottom. On the one hand, the undervalued repair of financial and real estate sectors will continue to be realized after fluctuations. On the other hand, the adjustment space of popular tracks such as the “new semi army” has also been relatively sufficient. At present, a wave of market similar to “mini version 2014” is brewing, and its timing depends on the wide credit process: 1) the market is in the time window of “stable growth” and marginal “wide credit”, and the core logic of the market continues to be fulfilled and strengthened: Although the new social finance in December 2021 is slightly lower than expected, the stock social finance is still 10.3% higher than the previous value, and the M2 is 9.0% higher than the expected 8.7%, It shows that the credit environment is still improving. In addition, the new special debt of RMB 1.46 trillion has been issued in advance, and major projects in some provinces and cities have also been issued in advance compared with previous years. Social finance is expected to further recover in January. Various signals and data are constantly verifying the direction of marginal “wide credit”. 2) At the time point, the index market in 2014 was not officially established until the central bank cut interest rates on November 21, 2014. At present, we also need to wait for signals such as social financing volume, reserve requirement reduction and interest rate reduction. However, from the time point of layout, just as the market finally proved that every adjustment from August to October 2014 has become an excellent buying point, it is still in the window of layout on the left. 3) However, the difference between now and 2014 is that, on the one hand, 2014 is a comprehensive and systematic relaxation. At present, under the general tone of “no speculation in real estate and housing” and “no promotion in infrastructure”, the intensity and space of policy easing are relatively limited, which is more likely to be phased and underpinned relaxation.
On the other hand, in 2014, it gradually evolved into a round of leveraged cattle. At present, the market leverage is weak, and institutional funds are still the dominant force in the market. Therefore, the final deduction form is similar to “mini version 2014”, and the time and rhythm depend on the process of wide credit.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) indicates that the watershed is ready to go after the Spring Festival. Since the beginning of the year, A-Shares have been disturbed by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the valuation adjustment of the high boom track, and the characteristics of the “spring lack” market are more obvious. Near the Spring Festival, in view of the uncertainty of overseas news during the holiday, some off-site funds stay on the sidelines, and the market may be light. The watershed or after the Spring Festival. At that time, the path of the Fed’s interest rate hike will be clearer, and China’s liquidity will remain abundant. At the same time, the steady growth policy related to infrastructure and real estate investment continued to work, which became the driving force for A-Shares to get out of the “cold spring”. Considering that China’s monetary policy is loose and the valuation of A-Shares is reasonable on the whole, incremental foreign investment is also expected to continue to flow into the A-share market. In terms of configuration, the “undervalued blue chip” is the main one: first, it is related to traditional infrastructure, such as banks and building materials; Second, the real estate and its upstream and downstream industrial chain benefiting from the marginal improvement of real estate policy. Focus on topics: digital economy, meta universe, traditional Chinese medicine, etc.
Guosheng Securities believes that with the full force of the steady growth policy, the credit conditions have been stabilized in a real sense, and it is necessary to further relax the policy in the future. In the short term, the liquidity risk of real estate enterprises remains, and the superposition of the impact of the high base in 2021 may cause periodic disturbance to the steady growth sector; However, from the perspective of fundamental trends, the current is the initial stage of the comprehensive development of the steady growth policy. The credit conditions have been stabilized in a real sense, and the rise of value may only be the beginning. With the digestion of growth track valuation, it is expected to open a wave of resonance market after the Spring Festival, and steady growth is still the largest beta main line in the next quarter.
Minsheng Securities said that the trend of value outperforming growth has been repeated since the beginning of the year, which may reflect the market’s doubts about the strength of “steady growth” after the release of some economic data in December 2021. Previously, it focused on the risk that the short-term fluctuation of the market will continue. At the same time, it also stressed that the current steady growth is still in the “expected deduction” stage. The cohesion of the “new consensus” of the market takes time, and the style switching has direction certainty, but it needs to be completed gradually. Investors in the whole market are waiting for new marginal changes, but the difference is: wide currency pushes up Valuation vs wide credit brings prosperity recovery. The real opportunities and turning points of the market are at several key nodes: the confirmation of wide credit (non wide currency), the confirmation of fund liability side disturbance and the return of strong stocks to the historical average level. It should be noted that there is no “perfect bottom” in the market, which means that when some of the above factors are available, it should be a good time to intervene. Investors who need to stay in the market should gradually carry out structural adjustment and grasp a more certain path in demand recovery (inflation itself). The more believable scenario is that when demand stabilizes and picks up, the certainty of inflation will be stronger than the demand itself, and the two will jointly drive the return of value. Recommended layout: nonferrous metals (aluminum, copper and gold), crude oil chain (oil service and oil transportation), real estate, banking, coal and electricity. The theme recommends Rural Revitalization and county consumption (brand clothing and digital government affairs).
