The market is out of the rising market of Zhongyang today. In the morning, the stock index was close to flat opening. It was sorted out in a narrow range near 3530 a.m. and close at noon. The fluctuation center of the stock index moved upward and fluctuated slightly near 3540 p.m,
The two cities traded a total of 1119.7 billion, an increase of 12.7 billion over Friday.
Today’s news with obvious impact on the market is that the central bank lowered MLF and reverse repo interest rates by 10 basis points, which is a signal of interest rate reduction and has a positive effect on the market. The latest issue of LPR will be released on the 20th, and the market expectation will drop, which has been reflected in today’s A-share trend.
Citibank pointed out in today’s report that it is expected that the quoted interest rate (LPR) of China’s one-year and five-year loan market will be reduced by 5 basis points on the 20th of this month. The report also predicts that China will cut interest rates by 25 basis points and reserve requirements by 50 basis points in the first half of this year.
There is another data today. In 2021, GDP grew by 8.1%, and the year-on-year GDP growth rate showed a gradual downward trend. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate in the fourth quarter was 4%, the lowest quarterly growth rate since the second half of 2020.
Growth slowed significantly in the fourth quarter. Under the background of steady growth, policy support will continue to strengthen and relevant stimulus measures will continue to be implemented, which is good news for the capital market.
Today, the digital economy led the rise. On January 15, the top leader published an important article “constantly strengthening, optimizing and expanding China’s digital economy” in Qiushi magazine. Developing digital economy is a strategic choice to grasp the new opportunities of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial reform. The healthy development of digital economy is conducive to promoting the construction of a new development pattern, a modern economic system and a new national competitive advantage.
Prior to this article, on January 12, the State Council issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of digital economy. The simultaneous development of the two texts has promoted the digital economy to a very high strategic position. The digital economy has become one of the core themes of the times. Internet, big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, blockchain and other technologies have accelerated innovation, and relevant tracks have ushered in a high light moment.
The in-depth promotion of industrial digital transformation will drive industrial software to usher in a business cycle. The digital transformation of industrial enterprises depends on the large-scale application of industrial software, which needs digital transformation from multiple process links such as R & D, production and management. Driven by the policy, the digital transformation process of Chinese industrial enterprises is expected to accelerate, and the upstream software and hardware industry ushers in a business cycle.
It can be said that the essence of the digital economy is the new infrastructure, the macro economy is not good, and the fiscal stimulus will be strengthened. However, compared with the new infrastructure, the marginal effect of the old infrastructure is much greater, and it is conducive to independent technological innovation and breakthrough. This main line may still be in a warm-up state.
There was another news over the weekend. An undersea volcano in Tonga, the southern island country of The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) , erupted violently twice in a row and triggered a tsunami. Many countries around The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) issued a tsunami warning. The large equivalent of volcanic eruption will cause climate anomalies and global cooling, which will have an impact on global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) production. Originally, the abnormal climate last year has pushed up global food prices, and there will be a lot of room for performance in agriculture and related sectors this year.
Theme stocks are flying all over the sky, and the market has entered an active state. Today, the market fluctuated upward, but it did not make up for the gap in Friday morning, and the upward attack is still slightly insufficient. Before covering the gap, this rise is still regarded as a rebound. The market bottomed near 3500, but it remains to be seen whether it can start the market immediately. Generally speaking, if there is no further large-level positive stimulus, there may be repeated shocks and bottoms years ago.
